What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Transport is the only major sector in the EU in which emissions have increased since 1990, and especially since 2013. The increase has been driven by higher activity levels in the new EU member states, and larger cars in almost all EU countries. Illustrative 1.5°C compatible pathways show a change of this trend: emissions need to decrease by up to 59% between 2019 and 2030, and continue to significantly drop in the 2030s. In most pathways, transport becomes carbon neutral in the 2050s.
the European Union's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The main driver of decarbonisation according to analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways is electrification. By 2030, electricity could constitute between 10 and 43% of energy used in the transport sector. This share increases to between 28 and 66% by 2040 and between 35 and 76% by 2050. The role of hydrogen is more uncertain especially in the mid-term: whereas the range of the scenarios for 2030 is between 2 and 4%, for 2040 it is much broader: between 9 and 41%. By 2050 the bottom of the range increases significantly to 21% whereas the maximum increases only slightly to 44%.
The share of electric vehicles in the EU doubled to 16% in the first nine months of 2021 in comparison to the same period in 2020, indicating a potential change in the emissions trend.1 The proposal of the European Commission to reduce emissions of new passenger cars by 55% by 2030 in comparison to 2021 and by 100% by 2035 is a positive step towards full decarbonisation of the EU’s transport sector.2
the European Union's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
814
|
330 to
354
|
132 to
133
|
5 to
57
|
2048 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59 to
-56%
|
-84 to
-84%
|
-99 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
10 to
43
|
28 to
66
|
35 to
76
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
5
|
13 to
22
|
18 to
32
|
18 to
45
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
4
|
9 to
41
|
22 to
44
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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