Sri Lanka

Last update: 1 December 2022

Economy wide

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Sri Lanka needs to reduce its GHG emissions to 17-26 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or 6% above to 37% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

With international support, Sri Lanka could adopt a more ambitious policy framework for scaling up renewable energy to enhance its energy security and independence.

Sri Lanka's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Data discrepancies

2030 NDC

In 2021, Sri Lanka updated its NDC target to a 14.5% emissions reduction below business as usual (BAU), equivalent to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels of 44.4 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 62% above 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF.¹

Long-term strategy

Sri Lanka aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, brought forward from its previous target of 2060.

Negative emissions

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would necessitate a reduction in GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, to around 6 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 or 78% below 2010 levels. Sri Lanka committed to increasing forest cover by 32% between 2021-2030, which will be key to balancing remaining emissions from other sectors.

Sectors

Power

In 2019, renewable energy resources met approximately 34% of electricity demand, mainly through large-scale hydro. The power sector remains heavily reliant on coal and oil (66% of the power mix).
Sri Lanka has committed to building no new coal power plants in the future, but power utility companies do not seem to be implementing this commitment. Also, it plans to convert existing oil-based combined cycle power plants to run on fossil gas.
1.5°C compatible pathways would require strengthening the government’s 2030 target of a 70% renewables share in the mix to 92-94% by 2030, combined with a fossil fuel phase-out.

Transport

In 2019, Sri Lanka’s transport sector heavily depended on oil-derived fuels. However, since 2020 there has been a noticeable transition towards electricity and biofuels as alternative sources.
To ensure Sri Lanka’s transport sector is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the electrification rate would need to increase to 3-7% by 2030.

Sri Lanka’s updated NDC provides a breakdown of the emissions reduction target per sector covered compared to a business as usual scenario. The document provides a graphical representation of the targeted emissions reductions. To assess Sri Lanka’s conditional NDC, we extracted the 2030 emissions level for each of the sectors from a given graph then added up the values to obtain the total level of emissions by 2030 excluding the LULUCF sector. ↩

What is Sri Lanka's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?