What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Kingdom
Current policies not in line 1.5°C
UK policies are on track for emissions reductions of 50-57% below 1990 levels by 2030. Emissions need to decline 72% below 1990 levels by 2030 to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. Further changes are required to close this gap.
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewables rollout will be critical to meeting growing electricity demand
Rapid deployment of renewables coupled with electrification is crucial for keeping the UK on track to limit warming to 1.5°C. The share of electricity from renewables will need to more than double to over 85% by 2030. The UK should achieve clean power by the mid-2030s on the road to net zero GHGs by 2050.
Fossil phase-out
As renewable deployment accelerates, fossil gas could be phased out by the 2030s in the power system and by the 2040s in buildings and industry. Oil demand in transport is significantly reduced, replaced instead by electricity and biofuels.