What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Kingdom
2035 target is aligned with 1.5ºC
The UK has introduced a 2035 target to cut emissions by 81% below 1990 levels including LULUCF. This aligns with 1.5ºC compatible pathways, which would see emissions fall by 79–84% (including LULUCF).1
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Clean power by 2030 target is 1.5°C compatible
Rapid deployment of renewables, coupled with electrification, is key to following 1.5°C compatible pathways. The share of electricity from renewables more than doubles from 2022 levels to over 85% by 2030, while overall power demand doubles by 2050. The UK’s target to achieve clean power by 2030 aligns with 1.5ºC compatible pathways.
A vast implementation gap remains
1.5°C compatible pathways see emissions decline by at least 71% below 1990 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF). In comparison, UK policies assessed as of July 2024 would lead to emissions reductions of only 53–59% below 1990 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF). Additional polices would be required to close this gap between the UK’s current policies and achieving 1.5°C compatible emissions in 2030.
Electrification can drive fossil phase-out
As renewable deployment accelerates, fossil gas could be phased out by the 2030s in the power system and by the 2040s in buildings and industry, while oil demand in transport is reduced swiftly towards zero. As a result, these 1.5°C compatible pathways could see demand for fossil fuels fall by 18–32% in 2030 relative to 2022 levels.