What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Kingdom
A fossil-free UK is within reach
In the HPA scenario, the UK phases out all fossil fuels by 2050 to reach real zero. The country that started the world’s transition towards fossil fuels in the 1700s is one of the first to end fossil fuel reliance under the HPA scenario. A fossil-free future requires widespread electrification and successful innovation to scale-up alternatives to fossil fuels in hard-to-electrify segments such as aviation and chemical feedstocks.
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Climate action is key to energy security
Clean electrification will reduce the UK’s import dependency and exposure to volatile international fossil fuel markets. Even accounting for future (declining) production trends, oil imports could be cut more than 50% in 2035, and gas imports more than 85% in the HPA scenario.
Electrification is at the heart of the transition
Clean electricity, provided mainly by wind and solar, and electro-tech options such as electric vehicles and domestic/industrial heat-pumps, are the backbone of the HPA scenario. By 2050, electricity is providing over 70% of energy demand, including around 90% of transport/buildings demand and around 50% of industrial demand. Electro-tech is three times more efficient than continuing to burn fossil fuels and can unlock significant energy efficiency savings across the economy.