South Korea

Last update: 15 March 2022

Economy wide

If contributions from international credits and LULUCF sinks are excluded, South Korea’s domestic NDC target equates to a 32% reduction below 2018 levels or 501 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.¹^,²^,³ Whilst an improvement, the 40% by 2030 target is not yet compatible with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway for South Korea. To align with this temperature goal, South Korea would need to reduce its GHG emissions to 62% (54-68%) below 2018 GHG emissions levels, reaching emissions levels of 288 (243-344) MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

South Korea's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2015
2017

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

South Korea released an updated NDC in December 2021, setting a 2030 GHG emissions reductions target of 40% below 2018 levels, including land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) and international credits.⁴^,⁵^,⁶ This translates to a 2030 emissions level of 441 MtCO₂e/yr.⁷

Fair share

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require South Korea to go further than its domestic emissions reduction target, and provide substantial financial or support for emission reductions to poor countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero CO₂

South Korea submitted its 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy to the UN in December of 2020. In August 2021, the government enshrined this long term target into law under the Carbon Neutrality Act.⁸^,⁹

2050 Ambition

Paris Agreement compatible pathways show that South Korea’s 2050 GHG emissions should be around 49 MtCO₂e/yr, or 94% reduction below 2018 levels. To reach net zero GHG by 2050, remaining emissions will need to be balanced by the use of carbon dioxide removals. With its historical sinks around –41 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017, South Korea is well positioned to have the required level of negative emissions by mid-century if current sinks are maintained.¹⁰

Sectors

Power

To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, South Korea would need to increase the renewable energy share in its power generation mix from 5% to 27-44% in 2030 and 64-96% in 2050.¹¹ Other Paris Agreement compatible pathways analysed in similar studies show renewable penetration as high as 48% by 2030. A higher share could avoid reliance on nuclear energy or carbon capture and storage.¹² Current policy states a less ambitious goal of a 20% renewable energy share in 2030 and 30-35% in 2040.¹³
With current shares of coal and gas at 43% and 25% respectively, South Korea will need to shift from fossil fuels within the next decade in order to be on a 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway. Coal will need to be phased out before 2030, with some studies showing a phase-out date of 2028.¹⁴^,¹⁵ Gas will need to be phased out by 2039-2047.¹⁶
South Korea’s current power emissions intensity is 493 gCO₂/kWh. Ensuring 1.5°C compatibility would necessitate a 63-68% emission intensity reduction by 2030 and a fully decarbonised power sector by 2040.

Buildings

Direct emissions from South Korea’s building sector decreased by 25% between 1990-2019. While energy demand in the sector has almost doubled during this period, the decrease in emissions reflects the fact that electricity has increasingly replaced direct fossil fuel combustion to meet this energy demand.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways have electricity’s share in building energy demand growing larger still, from 48% in 2019 to between 69-73% by 2050. As a result, direct CO₂ emissions from the sector are forecast to reach decarbonisation between 2036-2056.
South Korea will need to focus on energy efficient buildings, space heating and cooling being the main drivers of emissions in the sector. It is unclear yet what the impact of current government targets for “green remodelling” of public rental homes, public buildings, and schools will be.¹⁷^–¹⁸

Transport

Currently, fossil fuels meet almost the entirety of the transport energy demand (98% in 2019), while electricity and hydrogen make up the remaining small share.
1.5°C compatible pathways show a reversal of this demand structure, with hydrogen and electricity overtaking fossil fuels as the larger source of transport energy supply by around 2040.
Due to this shift in the energy structure, 1.5°C compatible pathways show direct CO₂ emissions declining, particularly after 2030. Along with this, energy demand for transport would also decline under most pathways, particularly over the next decade.
Current government policy seeks to increase the use of public transportation and the share of electricity and hydrogen-powered vehicles.¹⁹

Industry

South Korea has a comparatively energy intensive economy which relies substantially on heavy industry such as petrochemical exports.²⁰^,²¹
Currently, direct CO₂ emissions are around 66 MtCO₂. 1.5°C compatible pathways see emissions intensity halving again by 2030 and reaching a level of around 6 MtCO₂ in 2050.
The government has set a target for energy intensity reduction of 21% from 2017 levels by 2040 and has set forth a variety of regulatory measures to incentivise energy efficiency in the industrial sector.

Climate Action Tracker. South Korea. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker (2021). ↩
Climate Analytics. Transitioning towards a zero-carbon society: science-based emissions reduction pathways for South Korea under the Paris Agreement. (2020). ↩
See Climate Action Tracker assessment (November 2021 update) for underlying assumptions and assessment of current policies. ↩
Republic of Korea. Submission under the Paris Agreement: The Republic of Korea’s Enhanced Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Korea. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker (2021). ↩
The 2021 NDC is an update of the country’s first NDC submitted in 2016. An earlier update in 2020 set an absolute target of 24.4% emissions reduction from 2017 levels by 2030. However, this did not translate to a greater emissions reduction ambition over the 2016 NDC’s relative target. ↩
Note that in their enhanced updated NDC the South Korean government has estimated CO₂ equivalency using the global warming potentials (GWP) of the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR). Here we have converted the 2018 emissions level using GWP from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). See the Climate Action Tracker assessment (November 2021 update) for further details. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Korea. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker (2021). ↩
Ministry of Environment. Carbon Neutrality Act Passed by National Assembly Heralding Economic and Social Transition Towards 2050 Carbon Neutrality. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Note that the current value given here refers to 2019 levels. Similarly, the current coal, gas, and power intensity values also refer to 2019 levels. Renewables includes both variable and conventional sources. ↩
Costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher resource demands, a mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The relative cost trend between CCS in the power sector and renewables means that CCS in the power sector is increasingly unlikely to be able to ever compete with renewable energy. ↩
Republic of Korea. 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a sustainable and green society. (2020). ↩
Phase out is defined as occurring when one of the following conditions is met: relative generation of gas/coal drops below 1% of total generation or generation reaches a level equivalent to capacities ranging from 250-500MW and capacity factor of 20-80%. See methodology here. ↩
According to a joint analysis between Climate Analytics and Solution for Our Climate (SFOC), South Korea must phase out coal by 2029. Note that the study based its analysis on the global model IEA Energy Technologies Perspectives Beyond 2 degrees Scenario (IEA ETP B2DS 2017) not assessed in this analysis. A recent analysis from SFOC, Chungnam National University, and the Carbon Tracker Initiative indicates a coal phase out by 2028. ↩
Climate Analytics. Transitioning towards a zero-carbon society: science-based emissions reduction pathways for South Korea under the Paris Agreement. (2020). ↩
Republic of Korea. 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a sustainable and green society. (2020). ↩
Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea. MoE Announces Plans for Green-Smart Schools of the Future (2020-07-17). (2020). ↩
Republic of Korea. 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy of the Republic of Korea: Towards a sustainable and green society. (2020). ↩
Climate Transparency. South Korea - Climate Transparency Report 2021. (2021). ↩
Korea’s energy intensity of economy (TJ/million USD₂₀₁₅) sits close to the 75^th percentile of G20 nations.[^22] ↩

What is South Korea's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?