What is Mozambique's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Mozambique
Economy wide
While analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a wide range of emissions levels by 2030, they all show the need to reduce emissions by 2-14 MtCO₂e/yr relative to 2015 levels — equivalent to a 6-38% reduction by 2030. With international support, Mozambique will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways.
Mozambique's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Mozambique’s updated NDC aims for a cumulative emissions reduction of 40 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1 This would result in an 11% increase in emissions relative to 2015 levels or a level of emissions of 38 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.2 In the updated NDC, Mozambique articulates that it has received support from the NDC Partnership Climate Action Enhancement Package to develop its Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (2020-2050).3 However, this strategy is currently not publicly available.
Decarbonisation
Analysed scenarios show the energy sector decarbonising first, between 2040 and 2060, while others show the IPPU sector being the first to fully decarbonise by around 2040. In all scenarios, agriculture persists as a significant source of emissions beyond 2050, while the waste sector is also a minor contributor in certain scenarios.
2050 Ambition
By 2050, the country would need to reduce its emissions to between 18-26 MtCO₂e to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, equivalent to a 32-54% reduction in emissions relative to 2015 levels.4
Land-use and forestry
Efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating the country’s commitments to limit deforestation and restore forested lands, could create effective national carbon sinks to balance remaining emissions in the long term.
Sectors
Power
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While Mozambique already benefits from a high share of renewables (79% in 2019), consisting almost exclusively of hydropower, the country intends to extend its fossil gas power generation – already on an increasing trend - in the current decade.
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Mozambique’s intentions to considerably increase its natural gas production capacities risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway and creating stranded assets, considering that 1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to phase out gas from the power mix no later than 2033. Renewable energy could contribute between 98-100% of the power mix by 2030, driving a reduction in carbon intensity from 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 0-10 gCO₂/kWh by 2030.
Transport
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With the number of vehicles in Mozambique’s growing rapidly (average annual rate of 51% between 2012-2017),5 it is projected that the energy demand – and subsequent emissions – from this sector will continue to rise.6
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mozambique would fully decarbonise the sector between 2047-2050. This can be achieved through the rapid uptake of electricity, among other policies.7