About

About the project

Under the Paris Agreement, governments put forward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that lay out how they will cut emissions this decade in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The targets made so far are not sufficient to achieve this goal; they collectively put the world on a path to approximately 2.6°C of warming.

National governments urgently need to set more ambitious emission reduction targets to align global trajectories with the Paris Agreement. For many countries, meeting these domestic targets will require international support. 

The latest reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown not only why governments must act urgently to prevent higher levels of warming, but also how emissions can be brought to net zero by mid-century and keep the 1.5°C limit in reach.

In this project, Climate Analytics uses 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed by the IPCC in combination with more recent lines of scientific evidence to show how a selection of 64 countries across all regions and levels of development can align their decarbonisation trajectories with the Paris Agreement, and live up to their promises to prevent the worst climate change impacts. Additionally, the webtool features in-depth policy assessment for 25 of these countries, to provide context for the decarbonisation trajectories.

Funding Sources

The IKEA Foundation is the philanthropic arm of INGKA Foundation, the owner of the IKEA Group of companies. It aims to improve opportunities for children and youth in some of the world’s poorest communities by funding holistic, long-term programmes that can create substantial, lasting change. The IKEA Foundation works with strong strategic partners applying innovative approaches to achieve large-scale results in four fundamental areas of a child’s life: a place to call home; a healthy start in life; a quality education; and a sustainable family income, while helping these communities fight and cope with climate change.

Main contributors

The 1.5°C national pathway explorer is a project developed by Climate Analytics. Current contributors (as of April 2026) include:

Project lead: Dimitris Tsekeris

Modelling: Lara Welder (lead), Marie-Charlotte Geffray (overall pipeline, downscaling), Neil Grant (global pathways, downscaling), Zarrar Khan (global pathways, downscaling), Tommaso Ficara (investments lead), Johannes Honneth (investments), Fadil Razak (student assistant), Hanna Getachew (student assistant)

Policy analysis: Dimitris Tsekeris (lead), Olivia Waterton (lead), Kim Coetzee, Nandini Das, Neil Grant, Thomas Houlie, Michael Petroni, Eoin Quill, Ling Liao, Winnie Khaemba, Gabriela Cangussu, Koki Baba

Reviewers: Claudio Forner, Dimitris Tsekeris

Stakeholder engagement: Dimitris Tsekeris, Winnie Khaemba

Outreach and communications: Tessa Evans

Project management: Paula Mendoza

Strategy and guidance: Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Claudio Forner

Design and web development: CDLX

Kindly supported by: Kirby CMS

Co-contributors

Development and update of additional global 1.5°C compatible pathway variants: REMIND-team at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Prior contributors (pre-April 2026) include:

Andrzej Ancygier, Anna Chapman, Anne Zimmer, Arunima Sircar, Carley Reynolds, Celeste Gonzalez, Charlotte Plinke, Chelsea Jones, Claire Fyson, Claire Stockwell, Flavio Gortana, Firza Riany, Gaurav Ganti, Hannah Grant, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Holly Simpkin, Jae Kim, Jan Sindt, Jonas Hörsch, Marie-Camille Attard, Matthew Gidden, Paolo Cozzi, Raghu Vyas, Ryan Wilson, Sarah Heck, Shalom Udechukwu, Sharna Nolan, Sneha Pandey, Roufail Mikhaiel, Tina Aboumahboub, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Victor Maxwell, Yann Robiou du Pont, Yvonne Deng

Prior contributors (pre-December 2023) include:

Development and update of additional global 1.5°C compatible pathway variants: IMAGE-team at Universiteit Utrecht, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Sustainable Development, with additional help from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Acknowledgements

For prior versions of this work, we would like to thank the research teams who have made available the underlying data from global least-cost pathways used in this analysis, namely the following modelling teams: AIM, REMIND, MESSAGE and the EWG LUT.

How to cite

Climate Analytics, 2026. 1.5°C national pathway explorer. Available at: 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org

Sharing license

The 1.5°C national pathway explorer content, including all text, figures and data, is made available under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license, which allows others to distribute, adapt, and build upon the work non-commercially, so long as they cite and credit the original version.

About Climate Analytics

Climate Analytics is a global climate science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit.

We connect science and policy to empower vulnerable countries in international climate negotiations and inform national planning with targeted research, analysis and support.

Our international team of 130 experts and support staff work from our headquarters in Berlin and our regional offices in Africa, Australia and the Pacific, the Caribbean, North America and South Asia.

Get in touch

We welcome any feedback or comments on the assessment to improve our tool. If you have any inquiries or feedback on the tool, data or assessments please reach out to 1.5npe@climateanalytics.org.

For media enquiries please contact:
press@climateanalytics.org
+49 152 5612 4061