What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Australia
Closing the ambition gap to align with 1.5°C
1.5°C compatible pathways show domestic emissions levels at 296 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF, equivalent to 44% below 2005 levels. Including LULUCF Australia’s 2030 1.5°C compatible reduction would need to be at least 62%, whereas Australia’s current 2030 NDC aims to reduce emissions by 43% below 2005 by 2030. Taking into account current LULUCF sequestration projections the 43% target would result in only a 20% emissions reduction when LULUCF is excluded.
Factsheet on Australia's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
Australia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Renewables are expanding, but rollout can be accelerated
Although Australia’s renewable power capacity is rapidly expanding, rollout is not yet on a trajectory that aligns with 1.5°C compatible pathways. Achieving 1.5°C-compatible pathways would involve i.a. increasing the share of renewables in the power sector to 90-95% of the total generation mix by 2030. At present, the federal government’s 2030 renewables target is an 82% share of the electricity mix for the main grid networks, which covered about 92% of generation in 2022/23.
Fossil fuel phase out is key to domestic and global emissions reductions
Australia’s primary energy mix is still heavily dominated by fossil fuels. Fossil fuel production alone accounts for 15% of domestic emissions excluding LULUCF and is also responsible for substantial exported emissions. All assessed 1.5°C-compatible pathways show coal phased out by the early 2030s. However, the government has not committed to either a coal or a gas phase out, undermining Australia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement.
Raising ambition in long-term targets
Australia is relying on a combination of offsets, carbon capture and storage, unspecified “technology breakthroughs”, and significant LULUCF sink levels to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, impeding meaningful emissions reductions in the nearer term. None of the 1.5°C compatible pathways explored in this analysis feature fossil fuels with CCS deployed at scale.