Ethiopia

Last update: 1 December 2023

Economy wide

With international support, Ethiopia will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions reductions of 10-37% below 2015 levels or 76-110 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.

Ethiopia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Conditional NDC

Ethiopia’s NDC was updated in 2020, and is conditional on international support. Under this new target its emissions would increase to 75% above 2015 levels or to 213 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.¹

Current policy projection

Current policies projections indicate that Ethiopia is on track to meeting its NDC.

Net zero CO₂

Even though the country aims to become ‘carbon neutral’, it has not yet announced a net zero CO₂ target year. Its Low Emission Development Strategy is under development.²

2050 Ambition

1.5°C compatible pathways show GHG emissions reductions, excluding LULUCF, by 22% (10-37%) below 2015 levels by 2050.³

Emissions reductions

Emissions reductions measures will need to focus on high emitting sectors such as energy, agriculture, particularly livestock, and biomass for cooking. Intensifying its electrification programme for end-use sectors will be one of the key policy areas to steer emissions reductions both in the energy sector and the LULUCF sector.

Sectors

Power

Ethiopia has set a target of lowering its energy emissions by 117 MtCO₂e by 2030, including energy-related biomass emissions which accounted for around 88% of the primary energy mix in 2017.⁴
While Ethiopia already benefits from a close to fully decarbonised power sector with already 100% of domestically produced electricity from renewable energy, the country plans on a renewable-based energy supply to meet the growing demand primarily based on hydropower source through the soon to be ready Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). While it will be the largest hydropower plant in Africa with 5 GW installed capacity, the country may have to plan on a combination of both hydro with variable renewables such as wind and solar to reduce sustainability concerns around additional hydropower.⁵

Transport

The transport sector in Ethiopia contributes 3% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Analysed 1.5°C pathways show an increase in electrification to between 11-21% by 2030 and 44% by 2050, up from 0% in 2019, with full decarbonisation of the transport sector occurring between 2045 and 2047.

Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
GERD Coordination Office. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (2020). ↩

What is Ethiopia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?