What is Ethiopia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Ethiopia’s power sector is over 95% renewable. The power sector has the potential to be fully reliant on renewable sources by 2030. The commissioning of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hydro plant,1 with estimated capacity of 5600 MW, is estimated to increase renewable energy share (hydropower) to almost 100% by 2030 compared to the >95% current share of renewable energy in the power sector when considering energy imports for electricity supply.2
Ethiopia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Ethiopia’s power sector is almost entirely reliant on renewable energy with a close to zero carbon intensity power since 2020.3 This scenario may be affected by plans to include coal and nuclear in its power mix which are part of the draft National Energy Policy.4,5 The global energy monitor indicates 90 MW of coal capacity planned, which will steer emissions increase.6
Additionally, nuclear installations entail high initial costs, high maintenance costs as well as management of nuclear waste, which may detract from renewable options and could result in stranded assets. If this happens, the country will have to grapple with high costs for carbon removal technologies in the power sector in the long term in order to meet its climate targets.7
Ethiopia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Ethiopia on the order of USD 1.4 to 5.3 billion by 2030 and 1.2 to 9.3 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. In fact Ethiopia’s policies aim at 100% electricity access for all by 2030. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Ethiopia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ethiopia
| Indicator |
2019
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2030
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2040
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2050
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
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0
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0 to
0
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-2 to
0
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-6 to
0
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Relative to reference year in %
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0 to
0%
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0 to
0%
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0 to
0%
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| Indicator |
2019
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2030
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2040
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2050
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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Share of unabated coal
per cent
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0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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Share of unabated gas
per cent
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0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
100
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100 to
100
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100 to
100
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100 to
100
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Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
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0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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0 to
0
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BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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