With international support, Ethiopia will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions reductions of 10-37% below 2015 levels or 76-110 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
Ethiopiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−25%
NDC (conditional)
+57%
NDC (unconditional)
+78%
Ambition gap
−82%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
Conditional NDC
Ethiopia’s NDC was updated in 2020, and is conditional on international support. Under this new target its emissions would increase to 75% above 2015 levels or to 213 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1
14 Beyene, G. E., Kumie, A., Edwards, R. & Troncoso, K. Opportunities for transition to clean household energy in Ethiopia Application of the WHO Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool (HEART). (2018).
21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
22NDC indicates that forestry covers land and managed soils.
23 For example, it is difficult to prepare Injera, Ethiopia’s staple on a gas or electric cooker.
24 A review of GTPII is still underway. This will shed light on the current situation after the end of the GTP II in 2020 and provide a basis for GTPIII or a successor framework.
Even though the country aims to become ‘carbon neutral’, it has not yet announced a net zero CO₂ target year. Its Low Emission Development Strategy is under development.6
2050 Ambition
1.5°C compatible pathways show GHG emissions reductions, excluding LULUCF, by 22% (10-37%) below 2015 levels by 2050.21
Emissions reductions
Emissions reductions measures will need to focus on high emitting sectors such as energy, agriculture, particularly livestock, and biomass for cooking. Intensifying its electrification programme for end-use sectors will be one of the key policy areas to steer emissions reductions both in the energy sector and the LULUCF sector.
Ethiopia has set a target of lowering its energy emissions by 117 MtCO₂e by 2030, including energy-related biomass emissions which accounted for around 88% of the primary energy mix in 2017.1
While Ethiopia already benefits from a close to fully decarbonised power sector with already 100% of domestically produced electricity from renewable energy, the country plans on a renewable-based energy supply to meet the growing demand primarily based on hydropower source through the soon to be ready Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). While it will be the largest hydropower plant in Africa with 5 GW installed capacity, the country may have to plan on a combination of both hydro with variable renewables such as wind and solar to reduce sustainability concerns around additional hydropower.2