What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Japan
Closing the ambition gap to align with 1.5°C
Japan’s NDC aims to reduce emissions by 46% compared to 2013 levels by 2030 including LULUCF (or by 42% when excluding LULUCF). This represents two-thirds of the effort needed to align with 1.5°C, which would see emissions fall by 66-74% by 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewables targets are strong, but not strong enough
While Japan’s improved renewable energy targets are encouraging, renewable generation would need to triple by 2030 to be in line with 1.5°C pathways. Similarly, maintaining a 19% share of coal power in 2030 is inconsistent with 1.5°C, which would see coal practically phased out by 2030.
Aligning with 1.5°C would see less oil in the transport mix
Oil’s share in Japan’s transport energy mix remains stubbornly high at 97%. Pathways with a heavier focus on electrification see oil’s share in the transport sector fall 84% by 2050, which could be supported by Japan’s significant domestic car manufacturing industry and its 100% target for electrified vehicle sales by 2035.