What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Japan
1.5ºC compatible pathways support energy security and decarbonisation
Japan’s Seventh Strategic Energy Plan establishes improved renewable energy targets while also foreseeing coal power accounting for 19% of the energy mix in 2030, which is not aligned with 1.5ºC pathways. Japan is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels and plans to continue these imports to support its energy security. 1.5ºC pathways show it is possible for Japan to meet its energy needs and phase out fossil fuels through integration of renewables into the power system supported by additional storage and transmission infrastructure.
Japan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
-
Aligning with 1.5°C creates new opportunity for domestic automotive industry
While the share of oil in Japan’s transport energy mix remains stubbornly high at 97%, pathways with a heavier focus on electrification see oil’s share in the transport sector fall 84% by 2050. As a global leader in automotive manufacturing, meeting its target for vehicle sales to reach 100% electric by 2035 and transitioning to a 1.5ºC aligned transportation sector creates new market opportunities for the Japanese automotive industry.
Closing the ambition gap to align with 1.5°C
Japan’s 2025 NDC aims to reduce emissions by 60% compared to 2013 levels by 2035, including LULUCF. For comparability to our pathways we evaluate this as 53% reduction compared to 2013 levels by 2035.1 This is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways which indicate that emissions in 2035 would need to fall to 78% below 2013 levels by 2035 including LULUCF. Japan’s 2030 target, stated in its 2021 NDC, is also not aligned with 1.5°C pathways which require emissions to fall at least 64% below 2013 levels by 2030.