Japan

Last update: 15 March 2022

Economy wide

Japan’s updated NDC, released in October 2021, targets emissions reductions of 46% below 2013 levels by 2030, including contributions from LULUCF sinks. Excluding LULUCF, the NDC target would be 42% below 2013 levels, resulting in an emissions level of 814 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030. Japan’s updated NDC is a welcome improvement from the previous target (26% below 2013 level), but it is not yet in line with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway. A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Japan would require a rapid decline in domestic GHG emissions of about %(emissions-ndc_compat)60-72% below 2013 levels by 2030% (excluding LULUCF), resulting in an emissions level between 391-556 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.¹

Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2013
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Fair share

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Japan to go further than its domestic emissions reduction target, and provide substantial financial or support for emission reductions to developing countries. Japan’s fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker (domestic and international support) would require the country to finance or provide support for mitigation abroad equivalent to domestic emissions reductions on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero GHG

In its long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement, released in October 2021, Japan committed to reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The strategy links the 46% reduction target of its NDC with the long-term goal and states that the country will make additional efforts to reach a 50% emissions reduction below 2013 levels by 2030.² Both the 2030 and 2050 targets include contributions from LULUCF sinks.

2050 Ambition

Our analysis shows that for Japan to be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need to reduce emissions 94-104% below 2013 levels by 2050, excluding the role of LULUCF. Japan would then need to balance its remaining GHG emissions in 2050 (around 44 MtCO₂e/yr) by deploying carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) approaches such as land sinks or uncertain technological options.

Sectors

Power

For Japan to realise a 1.5°C compatible pathway, it is critical that the country decarbonise its power sector and, at the same time, electrify end-use sectors.
A paradigm shift in the power sector to a 51-82% share of renewables by 2030 could catalyse a transition to a 1.5°C emissions pathway. A share of at least 60% would be needed in order to avoid reliance on nuclear energy or fossil fuels with CCS.³
Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, coal, which accounted for 33% of Japan’s power generation in 2019, would be phased out from around 2030. This means any coal plant built now risks becoming a stranded asset within a decade. Gas, which accounted for 39% of generation in 2019, would be phased out between 2038-40, and the power sector would reach full decarbonisation between 2040-43.
Japan could achieve a fully decarbonised power system based on renewable energy and storage technologies. The 100% renewable energy pathway modelled here has non-bio renewables share in power generation increasing from 16% (2019 levels) to 81% by 2030 and nearly 100% by 2050.

Buildings

Direct CO₂ emissions of Japan’s building sector have been declining since 2002. Decreasing oil consumption has been the main driver of the emissions reductions occurring since 2005.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways have direct CO₂ emissions form the building sector falling by 34-48% from 2019 levels by 2030 and reaching close to full decarbonisation between 2040-2052.
Electricity’s share of final energy in the sector increases from 53% in 2019 to 66-69% by 2030 and 88-89% by 2050, and this is would be concurrent with the rapid increase of renewables in the power sector described above.

Transport

Japan’s transportation sector relies almost entirely on oil to meet energy demand (97%). The sector is therefore the least diversified in terms of energy mix and consequently has the greatest reliance (relative to total consumption) on imported fossil fuels.
At present, Japan is one of three countries with a target for 100% electrified vehicles in new car sales. The country aims to meet this target by 2035.
By 2050, Japan aims to reduce GHG emissions by 80% (compared to 2010 levels) per vehicle in the domestic automotive industry.
The 1.5°C pathways show electricity’s share in the sector increasing from 2% in 2019 to 12-25% by 2030 and 45-71% by 2050. Hydrogen and biofuels also see a significant ramp-up. Fuel switching leads to direct CO₂ emissions of the sector falling by 42-55% by 2030 and 92-94% by 2050. Direct CO₂ emissions of energy demand in the transport sector reach zero emissions 2053-2057.

Industry

The industrial sector (secondary industry) accounts for around a quarter of Japan’s GDP and around 29% of total final energy consumption. Given the country’s low level of energy self-sufficiency (9.6% in 2017) and high level of fossil fuel use in industry (71%), this sector represents a challenge both in terms of decarbonisation and energy security.
1.5°C compatible pathways show around 3% annual emissions reduction out to 2025, increasing to around 6% afterwards and until 2040. Under the pathways, emissions of industrial energy demand would reach full decarbonisation between 2048-50.
This would necessitate an increase in the use of electricity, hydrogen, and biomass. The share of these energy sources in industrial final energy would increase from 39% in 2019 to 43-51% by 2030, and 65-95% by 2050. A renewable energy-based power sector would provide the majority of industrial final energy by around 2040.

In order to guarantee that the derived emissions still achieve the global temperature goal when aggregated together across all assessed countries we assess the distribution of pathways from the median until the 5th percentile to form the higher and lower bound of the 1.5°C compatible range (60-72% below 2013 levels). Emission values are rounded to integers. In the Climate Action Tracker a slightly different methodological choice is used to define a 1.5°C compatible benchmark, where projections are harmonised on a different historical year and the median of the range of 1.5° compatible pathways is used - 62% reduction from 2013 levels by 2030. ↩
The Government of Japan. The Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. 1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target. Climate Action Tracker.(2021). ↩

What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?