What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Germany
Germany’s national emission targets are strong, but implementation is not
While Germany already has ambitious targets and aims to reach climate neutrality by 2045, to be 1.5°C compatible its 2030 target should be raised by 5% to reach 70% below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF). Current projections put it slightly off track from achieving its national 2030 target, even with the planned negative CO2 emissions (carbon sequestration) from LULUCF.
Germany's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Power sector decarbonisation is at risk of falling behind
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Germany’s power sector would need to be fully decarbonised between 2031 and 2035. Germany’s planned 145 GW of wind capacity by 2030 aligns with several 1.5°C compatible pathways, but it would need to slightly increase its solar target and most importantly to accelerate the implementation. Germany is currently off track from achieving its 2030 power sector renewable targets by 15 GW. However, coal and gas phaseout has been sluggish, and new plans to install gas plants will only set this back further.
Electrification of transport and industry sectors need to accelerate
Germany is falling behind in decarbonising transport and industry. It must accelerate EV adoption, expand long-distance rail as an alternative to flying, and electrify industry more rapidly. Lowering electricity costs can support this but must be paired with mandates for zero-emission power and fuels. Current industry decarbonisation targets are far off being 1.5°C compatible.
Germany’s new direction risks putting it further off track
New plans announced suggest the implementation gap will widen by allowing international carbon credits under the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to be used towards achieving its 2040 target, expansion of 20 GW of new gas power plant with carbon capture and storage, expanding gas exploration, expanding company car tax reductions, reducing taxes on aviation and re-introducing subsidies for diesel fuel.