Germany

Economy wide

Germany’s recent update of its 2030 emissions reduction goal to 65% below 1990 levels is a substantial step towards a 1.5°C compatible domestic emission pathway compared to its previous goal of a 55% reduction in the same period.¹ However, the new goal resulting in emissions of around 437 MtCO₂e/yr, is still not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways which require that Germany’s domestic emissions decrease by 68-76% below 1990 levels or 295-402 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

Germany's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Fair share

A full fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Germany to go further than its domestic emissions target, and provide substantial support for emissions reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.²^,³

Current policies

There is a very large gap between Germany’s current policies and its new 2030 domestic emissions reduction goals. Current policies projections submitted by the German government to the European Environment Agency, show that the country’s domestic emissions would fall by less than 42% by 2030, only 1% below the emissions levels reached in 2020.⁴ This corresponds to emissions of 730 MtCO₂eq.

Net zero GHG

Germany aims to reach net zero GHGs by 2045. Our analysis shows that for Germany to be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need a reduction of GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, of 93-102% by 2050, and would need to balance these residual emissions with, at most, removals of 27-84 MtCO₂e/yr.⁵^,⁶

Negative technologies

While global cost-effective pathways assessed here provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to develop negative emissions technologies other than BECCS and tend to rely strongly on land use sinks in developing countries.

Current policies

The land sector is currently a limited sink and it is expected to become a source of emissions under current policies. Germany will therefore need to deploy carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to balance remaining emissions. Recent studies indicate a potential of around 63 MtCO₂e/yr of removals from CDR technologies in Germany by 2045.⁷

Sectors

Power

Germany’s coal phase-out Law adopted in 2020 establishes that the last coal power plants should stop operating in 2038 with a provision to review and assess if an earlier (2035) phase out date is possible.⁸ Both dates are incompatible with 1.5°C pathways, which requires coal to be phased out by 2029.⁹
To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, the share of renewable energy in the power sector would need to increase to 88-89% by 2030 and 100% soon after. The current German Renewable Energy Law adopted in December 2020, includes the goal of increasing the share of renewables to 65% by 2030.¹⁰
Germany is increasing its dependency on natural gas. Such investments will postpone decarbonisation and increase the risk of stranded assets. Gas phase-out would need to happen in the late 2030s.¹¹
In 2020, renewables constituted the largest source of electricity generation with a gross share of 44% which grew from 29% in 2015, partly due to decreasing electricity demand.¹² The deployment of large-scale renewable energy projects has slowed down in recent years due to a poor investment environment, especially for onshore wind and solar PV.¹³^,¹⁴

Buildings

Emissions from the building sector in Germany almost halved between 1990 and 2021. 1.5°C pathways show that the sector could be fully decarbonised from around 2040.
Electrification, deployment of heat pumps and district heating, and installation of solar panels, where possible, combined with energy efficiency, constitute important drivers of the sector’s decarbonisation. 1.5°C compatible pathways show an increase in the share of electricity and heat reaching 45-47% and 6-10% by 2030, respectively. While new buildings are over 20% more energy efficient than 20 years ago, over 90% of homes have been built before 2000. The renovation rate needs to increase significantly.

Industry

Emissions from German industry sector decreased slightly faster than the country’s overall emissions. The main driver of this reduction was decrease in emissions from energy consumption in the sector, with process emissions decreasing at a slower pace.
Analysed 1.5°C pathways show that hydrogen and electrification could be the main drivers of emissions reductions from the sector. Electrification and deployment of hydrogen together with energy efficiency measures would help fully decarbonise the sector by 2050. 1.5°C compatible pathways show a share of combined electricity, hydrogen and biomass reaching 50-61% already by 2030.
Ending the free allocation of emissions allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), accompanied with support mechanism for low carbon technologies, such as Carbon Contracts for Difference are essential for decarbonising the industrial sector.¹⁵

Transport

Emissions from Germany’s transport sector fell by only 9% between 1990 and 2021, at a significantly slower pace than the country’s overall emissions.
Electrification of transport, with some contribution from hydrogen and biofuels, combined with decreasing need for car ownership, could be the main drivers of the sector’s decarbonisation.
For Germany to be compatible with the 1.5°C scenarios, it will need to fully decarbonise its transport sector by between 2048 and 2052.

BMU. Lesefassung des Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetzes 2021 mit markierten Änderungen zur Fassung von 2019. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Germany | Climate Action Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Germany’s proposed 2030 national target not yet 1.5˚C-compatible. (2021). ↩
European Environment Agency. Trends and Projections in Europe 2020. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Benchmarks here provided are derived from the illustrative pathway CEMICS-1.5-CDR8_REMIND_1.7 (28 MtCO₂e) and the 25^th percentile (47 MtCO₂e) of the analysis 1.5°C compatible pathways in this analysis, assessed by the IPCC SR1.5. See methodology section for more information. ↩
Agora Energiewende. Publication - Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany by 2045 (2021). ↩
Deutscher Bundestag. Kohleausstiegsgesetz. 2020, 202 (2020). ↩
Confirming previous analysis indicating that: “Germany needs to phase coal out of its electricity sector by 2030 to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. This is earlier than the dates discussed so far by the Coal Commission, a body established to come up with a coal exit plan by the end of 2018.”[^16] ↩
Deutscher Bundestag. Gesetz für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien (ErneuerbareEnergien-Gesetz - EEG 2021). (2021). ↩
Statistisches Bundesamt. Jährliche Erdgasimporte - Statistisches Bundesamt. (2020). ↩
AG-Energiebilanzen. Strommix. (2021). ↩
Handelsblattt. Ende der Windpark-Förderung: Gigantischer Rückbau der Windenergie. (2020). ↩
Tagesschau. Energiewende in Deutschland: Der Windkraftausbau stockt massiv | tagesschau.de. (2021). ↩
According to the Carbon Contracts for Difference, investor in low carbon technology (e.g. low carbon steel) receives subsidy that amounts to the different between the cost of producing traditional product and the low carbon alternative. This amount is reduced by what the investor would have to pay in carbon price anyway, e.g. in the framework of the EU ETS. ↩

What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Economy wide

Germany's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Fair share

Current policies

Net zero GHG

Negative technologies

Current policies

Sectors

Power

Buildings

Industry

Transport

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