What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Germany’s GHG emissions were 754 MtCO2e in 2022 (including LULUCF). The largest contributor has been the power sector, which was responsible for 29% of Germany’s emissions in 2022. This is followed by the industrial sector at 23% and the transport sector at 20%. LULUCF has been a source of emissions rather than a sink. Emissions are falling, with a 10% decline on 2022 levels in 2023 and 46% reduction since 1990.1
Germany’s Climate Action Law, which was reformed in 2024, sets legally binding annual GHG emission reduction targets out to 2040. In addition, Germany provides non-legally binding sector specific emission reduction targets for 2030. The law now no longer requires the government to act immediately if a single sector exceeds its annual emissions budget. Instead, it must introduce additional measures only if emissions projections indicate, for two consecutive years, that total emissions will surpass the cumulative budgets through 2030.2
Germany aims to reduce emissions to 65% below 1990 levels by 2030 with 25 MtCO2e negative emissions coming from LULUCF.3 However, Germany is currently not on track to achieve these targets, with current policies resulting in emission levels 6-8% off its 2030 target.4
Germany's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2022, around 80% of Germany’s primary energy came from fossil fuels, with fossil oil contributing to 35% of the mix, followed by fossil gas at 25%. Conventional renewables only contributed to 7%.
Buildings, including residential and commercial, account for almost 40% of energy consumption. Industrial and transport sectors account for 26% and 24% respectively.5
Oil dominates the transport energy mix at 90%, while Germany’s industry and residential buildings are largely fuelled by fossil gas at 39% and 34% respectively. Industry is the most electrified sector of the three, which accounts for 33% of the mix.
Energy consumption trends in all three end use sectors have fallen between 2015 and 2022, largely attributed to increased energy efficiency. However, in the buildings sector, fossil gas has grown rapidly while electricity fell slightly. In transport, biofuels are growing faster than electricity and oil is decreasing rapidly. Lastly, in industry, fossil gas and coal have fallen, however so has electricity, while biofuels and oil have increased.6
A ban of new fossil gas boilers was adopted in 2023 but was watered down to start in 2028 instead of 2024.7 Fossil gas in residential buildings has grown by 20% between 2014 and 20228 – increasing the lock-in investment risk for many households in a long-term costly fossil fuel.
Targets and commitments
National 2030 target:
As expressed by the country:
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65% greenhouse gas reduction compared to 1990 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).9
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Germany aims to achieve 25MtCO2e net negative emission reductions from LULUCF by 2030.10
Target in 2023 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- Germany does not submit its own NDC but rather falls under the European Union’s NDC, which commits to a “domestic reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 by 2030." Domestic means without the use of international credits.11
When excluding LULUCF, Germany’s (the EU’s) NDC target translates to:
- 52% below 1990 levels by 2030.12
Long-term target
As formulated by the country:
- By 2045, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced to such an extent that net greenhouse gas neutrality is achieved. After the year 2050, negative greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved.13