What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

Germany’s total GHG emissions (incl. LULUCF) decreased by 36% between 1990 and 2019.1 After a substantial COVID-19 pandemic-driven decrease in 2020, emissions increased again in 2021, reaching 39% below 1990 levels.

Electricity generation constituted the largest source of emissions with 31% share in 2020. Between 1990 and 2021 emissions from this sector decreased by 44%, resulting in a decreasing share.2 With a 22% share, industry was the second largest emitting sector. Transport sector contributed 19% of the overall emissions in 2021. After returning to 1990 levels in 2019, emissions from transport decreased significantly in 2020. They rose again in 2021 but were still 9% below 1990 levels.3

The policies and measures communicated in 2020 and early 2021 would result in emissions reduction of only 49% in 2030 and 67% in 2040, well below Germany’s own targets. This, however, does not reflect measures introduced or planned by the new government which took office in December 2021.4

Germany's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

Oil and petroleum products constitute the largest source of energy in Germany, accounting for 35% of primary energy demand in 2020, followed by natural gas and coal at 26% and 16%, respectively. The share of renewable energy in the electricity sector increased steadily and reached 45% in 2020 in gross electricity generation before falling to 41% in 2021. Due to a much slower progress in the other sectors, renewables contributed less than 20% of gross primary energy demand in 2021.5,6

Increasing the share of renewable energy is the main driver for emissions reduction in the electricity sector.7,8 in the buildings sector, energy consumption in 2019 was at the same level as in 1990. This was mainly due to a switch from coal to natural gas in 1990s, which has resulted in years of emissions stagnation. Unchanged emissions levels in the transport sector between 1990 and 2019 reflect a very modest increase in the share of renewables in the transport sector, counterbalanced by an increase in energy consumption in this sector by almost 3%.9

The new German government which took office in December 2021 declared its willingness to bring the move coal phase-out date back from 2038 to 2030, however, this declaration still has not been enshrined in law.[18] Against the background of the war in Ukraine and the high costs of fossil energy sources, in April 2022 the Minister for Economy and Climate presented its first package of measures that aims to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources.10 The measures are to be complemented by a new package of measures (‘Summer Package’) focusing on decarbonising the building sector. At the same time, German government is planning to build LNG ports to move away from Russian natural gas imports. This would result in an additional carbon lock-in, especially as the LNG ports would not be ready in time to mitigate the current energy crisis.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

National target

  • 2030 target: 65% below 1990 by 2030.11

Market mechanisms

  • Germany industry and power sectors are part of the EU’s emissions trading scheme (EU ETS).
  • On 1 January 2021, Germany started national emissions trading scheme for transport and heating.12

Long-term target

  • The goal of climate neutrality by 2045 was announced by German government in May 2021.13

Sectoral targets

Power

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 108 MtCO₂e/yr or 77% below 1990 levels by 2030.14
  • Increasing the share of renewable to 65% reflects the old emissions reduction goal and still needs to be updated.15,16

Transport

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 85 MtCO₂e/yr or 48% below 1990 levels by 2030.17

Buildings

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 67 MtCO₂e/yr or 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.18

Waste

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 4 MtCO₂e/yr or 48% below 1990 levels.19

Agriculture

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 56 MtCO₂e/yr or 36% below 1990 levels by 2030.20

LULUCF

  • To reflect the new emissions reduction goal, emissions from this sector need to decrease to 56 MtCO₂e/yr or 36% below 1990 levels by 2030.21

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