France

Economy wide

France’s national target is far from a 1.5°C compatible pathway. To be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need to cut domestic emissions by 62% from 1990 levels to 206 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF. The 2030 ambition gap is therefore around 123 MtCO₂e/yr.

France's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 Ambition

France has a national target to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. This target translates to limiting emissions levels to 329 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.¹

Current policies

France needs more stringent policies, notably in the transport and buildings sectors, the country’s largest emitting sectors, to get on track to meeting a Paris compatible pathway.

Fair share

A full fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require France to go further than its domestic emissions target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Net zero GHG

France’s long-term strategy sets a target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The target includes sinks from the land sector of around –80 MtCO₂e/yr to balance the remaining emissions from other sectors, mostly agriculture. France’s net zero target was passed into law in 2019.

2050 Ambition

Our analysis shows that for France to be 1.5°C compatible, the country’s emissions would need to be 89% below 1990 levels by 2050. This equals to emissions levels of 61 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF.

Sectors

Power

France already has a relatively low emitting power sector. However, 1.5°C compatible pathways show the need to reduce the sector’s carbon intensity by 75% below 2019 levels by 2030.
The power sector decarbonisation would need to be driven by a gas phase-out between 2035 and 2038 and a coal phase-out which should have happened already in 2020. While France had announced a coal phase-out by 2022, in August 2021, the government decided to keep one power plant running at 10% capacity, effectively postponing the phase-out to between 2024 and 2026. More recently, the government reopened one coal power plant, using the current fossil energy crisis as a justification.

• Robust policies to drive the development of renewables will be key in France’s energy transition as the country also aims to reduce its reliance on nuclear in power generation to 50% by 2035, compared to 75% in 2019.

• Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways for France indicate that renewables could generate 60–85% of electricity by 2030. In 2021, the share of renewable energy in the country’s power mix was 24%.

Buildings

Emissions from the residential and commercial buildings have declined by 40% since 1990. The sector emitted 62 MtCO₂e in 2019.
Given that by 2050 70% of the existing building stock in France could be made of buildings built prior to 2012,² rapid renovations as well as regulatory standards for new buildings will be needed in the coming decade.³
To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, France will need to increase the share of electricity in the building sector from 43% currently to 65% in 2030. The sector could be fully decarbonised between 2035 and 2044.

Industry

Emissions from industrial processes and energy demand in the industry sector fell by 40% and 33%, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. Key emitting sub-sectors include chemicals, metals and construction materials.
To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, direct CO₂ emissions from the industry sector will need to be further reduced by 42-47% and 83-100%, respectively, by 2030 and by 2050, from 2019 levels.
Much of the emissions reductions will need to come from increasing the shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass to 48–61% by 2030 and 72–85% by 2050 from 2019 levels.

Transport

France aims to reduce emissions from transport – its most emitting sector – by 28% below 2015 levels by 2030 and fully decarbonise the sector by 2050. To be in line with 1.5°C pathways increase the share of electricity in the transport sector from 2% in 2019 to 11–46% by 2030.
To incentivise a modal shift in transport, the government need to increase investments in and adopt more measures to promote rail travel and cycling.⁴

Ministère de la Transition écologique et solidaire. La transition écologique et solidaire vers la neutralité carbone. (2020). ↩
Ministère de la Transition écologique et solidaire. La transition écologique et solidaire vers la neutralité carbone. (2020). ↩
Dugast, C. & Joly, A. Depuis sa condamnation, l’État français s’est-il donné les moyens de son ambition climat ? (2022). ↩
Dugast, C. & Joly, A. Depuis sa condamnation, l’État français s’est-il donné les moyens de son ambition climat ? (2022). ↩

What is France's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?