Czech Republic

Economy wide

To be compatible with the Paris Agreement, Czechia’s 2030 emissions would need to be reduced to 54-70 MtCO₂e/yr. This translates to a 53-64% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).

Czech Republic's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Emissions trend

Czechia’s per capita emissions are the third highest in the EU and it is the bloc’s only member state in which emissions are increasing.¹

National target

Czechia’s current 2030 target, as set in its National Energy and Climate Plan, is a 30% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF), which translates to an emissions level of 105 MtCO₂e/yr. This target would need to be roughly doubled to be 1.5°C compatible.

2050 Ambition

Czechia has set a target of reducing total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. In absolute terms, this corresponds to a maximum GHGs emissions level of 39 MtCO₂e/yr. 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Czechia’s GHGs emissions excluding LULUCF in 2050 should be 0-19 MtCO₂e/yr, or around 87-100% below 2005 levels.

Decarbonisation

Due to the large share of emissions coming from energy supply, reforming the energy mix through a phase out of fossil fuels along with an increase in low-carbon technologies will be critical to decarbonisation.

Sectors

Power

Coal continues to play a major role in the Czech power sector. In order to be aligned with the Paris Agreement, this would need to be phased out by 2029, with a fossil gas phase-out occurring well before 2040.
The share of renewables in the power sector would need to increase to 49-61% by 2030. Czechia is currently aiming for a 17% share of renewables in the sector by 2030, meaning its ambition is significantly short of what it is needed to be 1.5°C compatible.
According to current and planned policies, in 2030 Czechia will have one of the dirtiest grids in the EU and rank at the very bottom for its share of renewable energy.

Buildings

Electricity’s share of final energy in the buildings sector would need to reach 61-68% by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible, with the sector being fully decarbonised by between 2038-2050.
Improved energy efficiency through renovating poorly insulated buildings, combined with the phasing out of gas and coal boilers, are some of the measures that could help decarbonise this sector.

Industry

Analysed 1.5°C pathways show that direct CO₂ emissions from Czechia’s industry sector could reach zero between 2034-2038. This could be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with renewable-based electricity, hydrogen, and biomass.
Czechia’s government has outlined a commitment to improve energy efficiency in industry production processes, with projections of a 2% reduction in industry final energy demand between 2020-2030, but does not have a sectoral emissions reduction target.²

Transport

Emissions from the transport sector are growing faster than any other sector in Czechia. In 2019, transport emissions were 66% above 1990 levels. They need to be reduced by 47-80% by 2030 to align with 1.5°C pathways.
Current policies indicate it is unlikely that Czechia will meet the EU’s target of a 14% share of renewable energy sources in the transport sector by 2030.³

What is Czech Republic's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?