What is Czech Republic's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
In 2019, the power sector accounted for 29% of total greenhouse gas emissions.1 Due to its large share of overall emissions, a rapid decarbonisation of this sector is essential for Czechia to meet its emissions reduction targets.
According to 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the emissions intensity of the Czech power sector should decrease from 420 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 40-50 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This can be achieved through a rapid phasing out of coal and increasing the share of renewables in the sector to 49-61% by this date. Considering Czechia’s current target of a 17% share of renewables in electricity by 2030, the government is a long way off bringing the power sector in line with a 1.5°C trajectory.
Czech Republic's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5°C compatible scenarios indicate that coal needs to be phased out by 2029 and fossil gas before 2040 to ensure a totally decarbonised power sector by this date. Decarbonisation could be achieved by a rapid uptake of renewables in power generation. However, the government’s lack of support for renewables, as well as its plan to increase the share of fossil gas, means that decarbonisation will not be achieved under planned policies.2
Czech Republic's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Czech Republic to be on the order of USD 1 to 11 billion by 2030 and 1 to 13 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and/or growing energy demand and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Czech Republic's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Czech Republic
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
422
|
40 to
49
|
0 to
0
|
-467 to
-10
|
2037 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-90 to
-88%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-211 to
-102%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
46
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
7
|
5 to
6
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2037 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
12
|
49 to
61
|
67 to
87
|
80 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
53
|
9 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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