Colombia

Last update: 1 January 2022

Economy wide

Colombia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not compatible with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway, which would require a 35% reduction below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF by 2030, equivalent to an absolute emissions level of 99 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.

Colombia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

In its updated NDC from December 2020, Colombia pledges unconditionally to reach an emissions level of 167 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or a 51% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to its BAU scenario, including LULUCF. When excluding LULUCF and converted to AR4, the NDC translates to emissions of 161 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, equivalent to 7% above 2015 emissions levels.

Fair share

Colombia’s NDC is not conditional on international support. However, Colombia’s fair share contribution lies above its domestic emissions pathway, indicating that it requires international support to close the gap between its fair share level and its 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway.

Long term strategy

Colombia submitted its Long Term Strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC in November 2021 and has also enshrined a carbon neutral target for 2050 in domestic law as part of the Ley Climatica enacted in December 2021.

2050 Ambition

To be 1.5°C compatible, Colombia’s GHG emissions would need to be reduced by between 68-100% below 2015 levels by around 2050, or reach levels of 0-51 MtCO₂e by 2050.¹

Negative emissions technologies

To achieve net zero emissions, Colombia would need to balance residual emissions in hard to abate sectors with the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches such as sinks from the land sector.²

Sectors

Power

Coal currently plays a minor role in Colombia’s power sector (10% in 2019), although its share has been increasing. Colombia’s climate policy still lacks a phase-out date for coal or fossil gas.³
To align with a 1.5°C pathway, coal would need to be phased out by around 2025. The 1.6 GW of capacity currently planned would therefore need to be scrapped. Gas, which accounted for 16% of power capacity in 2019, would need to be phased out between 2028 and 2033.
Colombia has made good progress implementing renewables in the power sector in 2020, over 70% of Colombian power supply comes from hydropower. However, there are no further targets for rapidly upscaling renewables beyond 2022. Our analysis indicates that at least 96% of power would need to be generated by renewables in 2030 to be in line with a 1.5°C pathway.

Buildings

The share of emissions from residential and commercial buildings represents around 10% of the energy sector emissions for Colombia, mainly due to growth in gas consumption.
Measures within Colombia’s NDC include improving energy efficiency standards for cooling and heating by implementing resolution N°0549 relating to sustainable construction.
To align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal, the share of electricity in final energy demand in Colombia’s building sector would need to reach between 73-78% in 2030.

Industry

Emissions from industrial processes in Colombia come mainly from cement and fertiliser production.
Colombia has committed to a 15% reduction in fossil fuel use in the cement industry by 2030. This target needs to be broadened and increased to be in line with a zero emission pathway for the industry sector.
The share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass could reach close to 100% of industry final energy demand by 2050.

Transport

Colombia has set a target to increase the total stock of electric vehicles (EVs) to 600,000 by 2030 and to renew its fleet of heavy-duty vehicles, but these measures are not sufficient.
The sectoral share of electrification, hydrogen and biofuels would need to increase to at least a 19% share by 2030 and over 90% by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible.

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM. Segundo Reporte Bienal de Actualización- Informe de Inventario Nacional de GEI de Colombia. 180 (2019). ↩
Editor. Colombian coal exports. The Coal Hub (2021). ↩

What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?