What is Colombia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
In its updated NDC from December 2020, Colombia pledges unconditionally to reach an emissions level of 167 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a 51% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to its BAU scenario, including LULUCF. When excluding LULUCF, this translates to absolute emissions of 161 MtCO₂e/yr.
In order to be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, Colombia’s total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 86-113 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, equivalent to a 25-43% reduction below 2015 levels.
Colombia’s NDC is not conditional on international support. However, Colombia’s fair share lies above its domestic emissions pathway, indicating that it requires international support to close the gap between its fair share level and a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway.
Colombia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Colombia submitted a Long-Term Strategy to the UNFCCC in November 2021, and has also enshrined a carbon neutral target for 2050 in domestic law as part of the Ley Climatica enacted in December 2021.1
To be 1.5°C compatible, Colombia’s GHG emissions would need to be reduced by between 66-100% below 2015 levels by around 2050, reaching levels between –1-51 MtCO₂e/yr.2 On the road to net zero, Colombia will need to balance its remaining emissions through the development of land-based sinks. This means that stringent policies will be needed to reduce LULUCF emissions, which accounted for close to one-third of total GHG emissions in 2014, to become net negative in the future. CO₂ emissions would need to reach net zero sometime in the 2040s.
Rapid upscaling of renewable energy will help to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions earlier and reduce the need for carbon dioxide removal approaches.
Colombia's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
Under Colombia’s updated NDC, a sectoral emissions reduction target of 11.2 MtCO₂e is set for the energy sector, contributing to its overall target of 51% emissions reduction by 2030 below BAU.3
However, current energy sector policies are not in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Fossil fuels still account for 77% of the total primary energy supply (TPES), of which 12% is coal.4 Colombia’s updated NDC and current sectoral mitigation strategies for the energy sector make no mention of phasing out fossil fuels anytime soon, with no stated coal phase-out date.5 Most energy sector mitigation is planned to be achieved through improvements in energy efficiency within the industry and buildings sectors.
Rapid and decisive investment in renewable energy infrastructure and jobs is needed to both reduce energy sector emissions and economic dependence on fossil fuel exports.
A minimum 96% renewable share of power generation and 46-53% of total energy supply from renewables by 2030 would be needed to decarbonise the energy mix in line with pathways aligned with 1.5°C.
Lower proportions of renewables in total energy supply by 2030 would require higher levels of negative emissions to counteract residual emissions. These technologies are not yet available at scale and would require high up-front investments.
Colombia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Colombia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2015
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
151
|
176
|
99
86 to
113
|
61
47 to
66
|
29
-1 to
51
|
2063
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-35%
-43 to
-25%
|
-60%
-69 to
-56%
|
-81%
-100 to
-66%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
75
|
88
|
47
34 to
56
|
11
-5 to
23
|
-16
-42 to
2
|
2043
2039 to
2057
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-37%
-55 to
-25%
|
-86%
-107 to
-69%
|
-122%
-156 to
-97%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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