What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Indonesia
Current policies set to overachieve current insufficiently ambitious NDC target, but not 1.5°C compatible
Indonesia’s current NDC is unambitious and not aligned with 1.5°C. Alignment with 1.5°C would see Indonesia setting an emissions reduction target of 0-28% below 2015 levels (583-808 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF) by 2030. Indonesia would need to strengthen its 2030 conditional target from its 2022 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible.
Factsheet on Indonesia's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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Fossil fuel phaseout should be prioritised over reliance on forestry offsets
For both Indonesia’s conditional and unconditional 2030 NDC targets, 60% of the emissions reduction efforts rely on carbon removals from the forestry sector. A 1.5°C compatible strategy would prioritise phasing out fossil fuels (which accounted for 74% of primary energy in 2021) while minimising reliance on uncertain and reversible reductions from the LULUCF sector. The recent announcement to phase out coal by 2040 would bring Indonesia's power sector transition into close alignment with the 1.5°C pathways and help meet socio-economic development goals by cutting air pollution and lowering power prices.
Further investments in wind and solar can help transition away from coal
Increasing investments in clean energy sources would allow Indonesia to meet its rising power demand and make the deep cuts in emissions required to set Indonesia on a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, 94 GW of solar power and 51 GW of wind power would be deployed by 2030, supported by average annual investments of USD 24 billion from 2026–2030. This would reduce power sector emissions by close to 80% compared to 2021.