What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Indonesia
Fossil fuel phase-out should be prioritised over reliance on forestry offsets
Both Indonesia’s conditional and unconditional 2030 NDC targets rely heavily on impermanent reductions from the LULUCF sector. A 1.5°C compatible strategy would prioritise phasing out fossil fuels (which accounted for two thirds of primary energy in 2022) while minimising reliance on forestry offsets. The recent announcement to phase out fossil fuels by 2040 would bring Indonesia's power sector transition into close alignment with the 1.5°C pathways.
Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Further investments in wind and solar can help transition away from coal
Increasing investments in clean energy sources would allow Indonesia to meet its rising power demand and make the deep cuts in emissions required to set Indonesia on a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, 94 GW of solar power and 51 GW of wind power would be deployed by 2030, supported by average annual investments of USD 25 billion from 2026–2030. Between 2031-2040, annual investments would slightly decline to USD 18 billion.
A stronger NDC target can drive ambition
Indonesia’s current NDC does not drive ambition as it will already be achieved with current policies. Alignment with 1.5°C would see Indonesia set an emissions reduction target of 16% above 2010 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF) or 863 MtCO2e. Indonesia would need to strengthen its 2030 conditional target from its 2022 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with 1.5°C.