Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Indonesia’s current policies will see GHG emissions rise to 1487-1628 MtCO₂e by 2030, a 84-102% increase from 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF. Indonesia’s unconditional 2022 NDC target aims to reduce emissions by 32% below a business-as-usual scenario. Its conditional NDC targets a reduction of 43% below a business-as-usual scenario, which in practice could lead to a doubling of emissions from 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).¹^,² The conditional target does not align with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require Indonesia to decrease its emissions back to 2015 levels.

Indonesia’s 2030 ambition gap is 902 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, and 894 MtCO₂e including LULUCF.³ Indonesia’s draft second NDC, released for consultation in 2024, is shown to have modest improvements but still does not close the ambition gap.⁴ Indonesia will very likely meet both the 2022 and draft 2024 NDC unconditional and conditional targets under current policies.

When including LULUCF, Indonesia’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 549 MtCO₂e by 2035, or 87% below 2015 levels. Indonesia would need to strengthen its 2030 conditional target from its 2022 NDC and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible.⁵ For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.

The LULUCF sector has experienced wide fluctuations in Indonesia, with its emissions peaking in 2015 at 1560 MtCO₂e. This influences the percent reductions in emissions calculated relative to 2015. According to the national 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, the LULUCF sector reaches net zero in 2030 and becomes a net sink thereafter. In 2016-2020, the average land sink in Indonesia was around -350 MtCO/yr, while emissions from deforestation and peat burning were over 1000 MtCO₂/yr. Reaching net zero land-use emissions by 2030 therefore requires strong reductions in emissions from deforestation and peatlands (on the way to zero post-2030), and maintaining/ expanding the existing land-use sink.

For both of Indonesia’s NDC targets, 60% of the emissions reduction efforts rely on negative emissions from the forestry sector. A faster decline in fossil fuel supply and consumption would reduce the need for uncertain negative emissions, in addition to delivering societal co-benefits.

Action is needed to close the ambition gap and to initiate its fossil fuel phase-out. This would include strategies for managing the captive coal fleet, the deployment of policy incentives for renewables, as well as the reinforcement of frameworks like the newly-implemented carbon tax.⁶

Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
- NDC incl. LULUCF: Indonesia assumpptions

Long term pathway

In its 2022 NDC and Long-Term Strategy, Indonesia plans to reach peak emissions by 2030, and achieve net zero emissions “by 2060 or sooner”, though President Prabowo Subianto has indicated net zero before 2050 is possible.⁷⁸ The Long-Term Strategy mentions an intermediary target of 540 MtCO₂e by 2050 in its “low carbon scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement target”.⁹ Yet, Indonesia does not have a clear policy plan to reach these objectives.¹⁰ To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, emissions must decrease by at least 62% below 2015 levels by 2050, to 310 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF.

The LULUCF sector, which accounted for half of Indonesia’s total emissions in 2019, is key to Indonesia’s Long-Term Strategy.¹¹ The Long-Term Strategy explores two scenarios, where the agriculture, forestry and land use sector are projected to become a net sink by either 2030 or 2050 thanks to reductions in deforestation and peat emissions.¹² Nevertheless, economy-wide emissions reductions and decreases in production and consumption of fossil fuels are needed in non-LULUCF sectors as well as removals from LULUCF.¹³

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Indonesia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	807	957	583 to 808	491 to 691	355 to 546	217 to 310
Relative to reference year in %			-28 to 0%	-39 to -14%	-56 to -32%	-73 to -62%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	517	594	271 to 427	147 to 349	36 to 240	-64 to 60
Relative to reference year in %			-48 to -17%	-72 to -32%	-93 to -54%	-112 to -88%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
- Download data as CSV

Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution,” 2022. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia. December 2023.” (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023). ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia. December 2023.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia’s New Climate Goals: Positive Developments but Some Red Flags,” 2024 ↩
Indonesia provides a sector-by-sector breakdown of absolute emissions under their conditional and unconditional targets, in GWPs from the Second Assessment Report (SAR). We convert total emissions excluding LULUCF from SAR to GWPs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) using the 10-year average historical ratio between SAR and AR4 emissions from PRIMAP. We assume LULUCF emissions are largely CO2 emissions so they are not converted. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia. December 2023.” ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution”; Republic of Indonesia, “Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050,” 2021. ↩
Cabinet Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia, “G20 Summit: President Prabowo Subianto Highlights Indonesia’s Green Energy Vision, Global Climate Role,” November 20, 2024 ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Asia Society Policy Institute, “Getting Indonesia to Net Zero,” 2023. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia. December 2023.” ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry” (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023). ↩

What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Indonesia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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