Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

While the full analysis on ambition, including comparison to our pathways, is underway for Indonesia’s official 2^nd NDC and will be published here, preliminary analysis based on the draft Second Nationally Determined Contribution which was released for public consultation is available here.

Indonesia’s unconditional 2022 NDC target aims to reduce emissions by 32% below a business-as-usual scenario. Its conditional NDC targets a reduction of 43% below a business-as-usual scenario. This would more than double Indonesia’s emissions compared to 2010 levels – far higher than 1.5°C compatible pathways which see any emissions increase limited to 16% above 2010 levels (excluding LULUCF).¹^,²

In absolute values, Indonesia’s 2030 ambition gap under 2022 NDC translates to 780 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, and 1055 MtCO₂e including LULUCF.³ While the full analysis on ambition under the 2025 NDC is underway, a preliminary analysis on the draft 2025 NDC, released for consultation in 2024, shows modest improvements though significant gap remains. It also shows that Indonesia will very likely meet both the 2022 and draft 2024 NDC unconditional and conditional targets under current policies.⁴ This indicates Indonesia could be much more ambitious in its 2030 and 2035 targets.

To align with 1.5°C pathways, emissions must fall to 314 MtCO₂e (including LULUCF) by 2035 (75% below 2010). This would require strengthening the 2030 conditional target (currently 28% above 2010 including LULUCF) and the 2035 target to be consistent with 1.5°C pathways.

Around 60% of 2022 NDC conditional reductions depend on the uncertain negative emissions in the LULUCF sector.⁵ Such a reliance on forestry imposes a key risk to decarbonisation. As a major carbon emitter, the LULUCF sector drives large fluctuations in national total emissions. Therefore, curbing deforestation and maintaining and expanding land sinks are critical. (See our full LULUCF analysis here) At the same time, accelerating a fossil fuel phase-out through managed coal retirement, stronger renewables incentives, and reinforcing the new carbon tax would reduce reliance on land sinks, close the ambition gap, and deliver wider co-benefits.⁶

Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker.
- NDC incl. LULUCF: Indonesia assumpptions

Long term pathway

In its 2022 NDC and Long-Term Strategy, Indonesia plans to reach peak emissions by 2030, and achieve net zero emissions “by 2060 or sooner”, though President Prabowo Subianto has indicated net zero before 2050 is possible.⁷^,⁸ The Long-Term Strategy mentions an intermediary target of 540 MtCO₂e by 2050 (including LULUCF) in its “low carbon scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement target”.⁹ Yet, Indonesia does not have a clear policy plan to reach these objectives.¹⁰ To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, emissions must decrease by at least 60% below 2010 levels by 2050, to 294 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF.

The LULUCF sector, which accounted for nearly a quarter of Indonesia’s total emissions in 2022, is key to Indonesia’s Long-Term Strategy.¹¹ The Long-Term Strategy explores two scenarios where the agriculture, forestry and land use sectors are projected to become a net sink by either 2030 or 2050 due to reductions in deforestation and peat emissions.¹² Nevertheless, economy-wide emissions reductions and decreases in the production and consumption of fossil fuels in non-LULUCF sectors are needed to align with 1.5°C in addition to removals from LULUCF.¹³

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2024. Last inventory year: 2022.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Indonesia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

Indicator	2010 Reference year	2023	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	742	1188	619 to 863	472 to 721	343 to 549	150 to 294
Relative to reference year in %			-17 to 16%	-36 to -3%	-54 to -26%	-80 to -60%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	433	785	270 to 430	144 to 351	32 to 244	-65 to 53
Relative to reference year in %			-38 to -1%	-67 to -19%	-93 to -44%	-115 to -88%
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1272		382 to 573	92 to 314	-26 to 98	-341 to -90
Relative to reference year in %			-70 to -55%	-93 to -75%	-102 to -92%	-127 to -107%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	963		-237 to -290	-380 to -407	-368 to -450	-490 to -383
Relative to reference year in %			-125 to -130%	-139 to -142%	-138 to -147%	-151 to -140%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Methodology
- How are emissions benchmarks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker.
- Download data as CSV

Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution,” 2022. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, Indonesia, December 2024 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, Indonesia. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia’s New Climate Goals: Positive Developments but Some Red Flags,” 2024 ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Indonesia. December 2023.,” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023. ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution”; Republic of Indonesia, “Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050,” 2021. ↩
Cabinet Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia, “G20 Summit: President Prabowo Subianto Highlights Indonesia’s Green Energy Vision, Global Climate Role,” November 20, 2024 ↩
Republic of Indonesia, Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050) (2021), ; Republic of Indonesia, “Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution.” ↩
Asia Society Policy Institute, “Getting Indonesia to Net Zero,” 2023. ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Indonesia First Biennial Transparency Report on Climate Change,” 2024 ↩
Republic of Indonesia, “Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050.” ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry,” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023. ↩

What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Indonesia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Indonesia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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