What is United Republic of Tanzania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Republic of Tanzania
Economy wide
International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 11-38% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand. This is critical considering that both Tanzania’s initial and updated NDC are fully conditional.1,2
United Republic of Tanzania's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
In its updated NDC (from July 2021), Tanzania aims to reduce GHG emissions by 30-35% by 2030 below BAU, equivalent to around 0-7% below 2014 levels including LULUCF.3 This translates in emissions of 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.4
Long term strategy
Tanzania had as of March 2022 not submitted a long-term decarbonisation strategy.
2050 Ambition
1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reduce its GHG emissions by 20-51% below 2015 levels by 2050 or 42-69 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.5
Decarbonisation
The land and agriculture sectors overall are the main contributors to GHG emissions and would be key in the decarbonisation of Tanzania’s economy and society. Decarbonising the energy sector would also need to be prioritised, as its currently dominated by traditional biomass use (80% of total energy consumption) (mostly for cooking and heating).
Sectors
Power
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As of 2019, just under 36% of power generated in Tanzania is from renewables. Natural gas dominates the power sector at 55% while oil accounts for 7%.6
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In May 2021, Tanzania and Uganda signed an agreement of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline signalling continued investment in fossil fuels.
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While the country is aiming to increase the exploitation of its natural gas reserve, 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that fossil fuels would need to be phased out by 2038 to avoid carbon lock-in and face the risk of stranded assets.
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With a strong increase in renewable energies reaching 88-99% share in the power mix by 2030, the sector could achieve full decarbonisation by late 2030s.
Transport
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Transport is responsible for about 30% of Tanzania’s CO₂ emissions. Due to the large share of emissions from LULUCF and agriculture, this is only 4% of Tanzania’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
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1.5°C compatible pathways show an increase in electrification from almost 0% in 2019 to between 6-21% by 2030 and 25-44% by 2050.
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Decarbonisation can be achieved between 2047-2050 but would require the strengthening of current policies.7