What is United Republic of Tanzania's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
In its updated NDC (July 2021), Tanzania aims to reduce GHG emissions by 30-35% by 2030, equivalent to around 0-7% below 2014 levels including LUUCF.1 This translates in emissions of 12% below to 24% above 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.2
Analysed 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathways indicates that Tanzania would need to reduce its emissions by 11-38% below 2015 levels or reach emission levels of 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 11-38% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 54-77 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand.
United Republic of Tanzania's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Tanzania had, as of March 2022, not submitted a long-term decarbonisation strategy. The land and agriculture sectors overall are the main contributors to GHG emissions and would be key in the decarbonisation of Tanzania’s economy and society. Decarbonising the energy sector would also need to be prioritised, as its currently dominated by traditional biomass use (80% of total energy consumption) (mostly for cooking and heating).
1.5°C compatible pathways would require the country to reduce its GHG emissions by 20-51% below 2015 levels by 2050 or 42-69 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.3 Tanzania will need to implement stringent policies to reduce its LULUCF emissions driven by deforestation due to shifting to agriculture use. While Tanzania’s previous NDC stated that over 54% of its land is forested, deforestation has been on an increasing trend these past 4 years.4
United Republic of Tanzania's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Energy system transformation
Biomass energy in Tanzania is used for cooking and heating purposes and massively dominates the energy sector, accounting for 82% of total consumption.5 Fossil fuels (oil and natural gas) account for 15% while 3% is from hydro, solar and wind. This has adverse impacts not only in terms of its contribution to LULUCF emissions but also to health impacts.6 Transitioning from traditional biomass to modern biomass will help improve air quality and reduce impacts on deforestation. To decarbonise its energy system, Tanzania will need to diversify its energy mix and consider the development of off-grid renewable solutions to ensure a shift to sustainable sources.7,8,9
As of 2019 only 29% of households in Tanzania have electricity..10This means that increasing access to electricity would also be beneficial for the shift from biomass by majority of households.10 Tanzania’s lifeline tariff, where users with consumption of between 200-400 kWh enjoy lower rates, could further enable electricity access and electric cooking on the condition of grid stability.11
United Republic of Tanzania's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United Republic of Tanzania. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2014
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
82
|
90
|
65
54 to
77
|
60
48 to
70
|
58
42 to
69
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-21%
-35 to
-6%
|
-27%
-42 to
-15%
|
-29%
-49 to
-16%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
10
|
13
|
12
9 to
13
|
7
3 to
10
|
2
-1 to
7
|
2059
2048 to
2069
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
16%
-7 to
31%
|
-32%
-69 to
0%
|
-81%
-112 to
-26%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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