What is Philippines's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Philippines
Economy wide
Our analysis shows that the Philippines NDC is ambitious as it is consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit required under the Paris Agreement. We estimate a 1.5°C compatible pathway to be around 108 MtCO₂e/yr, or 41% below 2015 levels by 2030. However, current policy projections show the Philippines is not on track to meeting its NDC target, with emissions expected to increase by 34-41% above 2015 levels.
Philippines' total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
-
2030 NDC
The Philippines updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in April 2021 to a 75% emissions reduction by 2030, relative to a cumulative business-as-usual (BAU) emissions pathway. 2.71% of the target is unconditional, while the remaining 72.29% is conditional on international support. The NDC is equivalent to an unconditional target of 384 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, with a conditional target of 96 MtCO₂e/yr. The conditional target translates to 47% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF).1
Fair share
Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building, will be needed for The Philippines’ to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.
2050 Ambition
The Philippines does not have a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) target. 1.5°C compatible pathways would require the Philippines to reach GHG emissions reductions of 73% below 2015 levels by 2050 (or 49 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050), when excluding LULUCF emissions.2 On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions with land sinks.
Emissions reductions
Emissions reductions should primarily target the energy sector, as this sector currently contributes the largest share of emissions. There is a potential to increase renewable energy in the Total Primary Energy Supply from 34% in 2019 to 93% in 2050.
Renewable energy
100% renewable energy electricity generation can be achieved by 2040. Accelerating renewable energy uptake is key power system flexibility, resilience, and electricity access for remote communities.
Remaining emissions
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) can balance out the remaining emissions from other sectors, particularly agriculture, which is expected to take the largest share of emissions in all scenarios from 2050. Favouring climate friendly agricultural methods will reduce the need for CDR.
Negative emissions technologies
The declining prices of renewables and the costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at present mean that plans or investment in fossil fuels that would rely on CCS to reduce emissions would place the Philippines in danger of increasing stranded assets. A high renewable energy pathway will prove more feasible and provide more benefits for sustainable development.
Negative emissions technologies
Carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDR) such as land-based CDR or technological CDR, may play a role in bringing emissions to net zero. However, LULUCF emissions remains highly uncertain.
Sectors
Power
-
Renewables could make up around 80% of the power mix by 2030 and near 100% by 2040. Current policy reforms include renewable auctions, the curtailment of coal supply contracts under certain conditions, and opt for cheaper renewables by end users, which has the potential to speed up the deployment of renewables.3
-
1.5°C compatible pathways show coal and gas could be phased out of the power sector by 2035. Renewable uptake can be accelerated by scrapping all new coal fired power plants in the pipeline and implementing a just transition to phase out existing fossil fuel plants. Philippines may require international support to achieve these phase out schedules.
-
The Philippines could reduce the carbon intensity in its power sector to zero by 2039. However, the expansion of gas infrastructure is a barrier to low emissions power, and does not set the country on course for energy independence, while also risking expensive stranded assets.4,5
Transport
-
The assessed 1.5°C pathways show electricity representing a 1-6% share of the transport sector in 2030 and a 12-40% share by 2050, up from 0% in 2019.
-
Current policies are insufficient to meet the government’s target of a 5% electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate for road transport by 2040.