What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
India
India's energy transition at a critical juncture, with faster action needed on coal phase out
While there has been notable progress in expanding renewable energy, coal continues to dominate the energy landscape. India is caught in a cycle of increasing coal production to meet its growing energy needs. Coal needs to be phased out between 2035-2040 for India to be 1.5°C aligned. However, India currently has no plans to phase out coal and existing coal plants continue to add into the total emissions without early retirement plans.
Factsheet on India's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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India could adopt a more ambitious conditional NDC
India's 2022 NDC falls short of driving substantial emissions reductions, conditionally leading to a 133-149% emissions increase above 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. With current policies, it is likely that the target would be achieved by 2030, indicating India could adopt a more ambitious conditional target. Analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways require emissions reductions of 47% above 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF.
Future coal investments could be redirected to renewables
To be 1.5°C aligned, investment in wind and solar capacity needs to ramp up to USD 60–99 billion annually between 2026–2030 and USD 55–88 billion annually between 2031–2040. In the financial year of 2023-2024, solar and wind investments reached USD 12.2 billion, while coal and oil investments amounted to USD 7.2 billion. Around USD 50 billion is committed for coal power between 2020 and 2030. Redirecting these fossil fuel investments could help India get on the path to 1.5°C.