What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
India
India's energy transition is at a critical juncture, with faster action needed on coal phase out
While there has been notable progress in expanding renewable energy with 46% share in installed capacity, coal continues to dominate the energy landscape with 46% share in primary energy mix. India is caught in a cycle of increasing coal production to meet its growing energy needs, yet coal needs to be phased out between 2035-2040 for India to be 1.5°C aligned. However, India currently has no plans to phase out coal.
India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Future coal investments could be redirected to renewables
To be 1.5°C aligned, investment in wind and solar capacity needs to ramp up to USD 68-104 billion annually between 2026–2030 and USD 62-92 billion annually between 2031–2040. In the financial year of 2023-2024, solar and wind investments reached USD 12.2 billion, while coal and oil investments amounted to USD 7.2 billion. Around USD 50 billion is committed for coal power between 2020 and 2030. Redirecting these fossil fuel investments can help India get on the path to 1.5°C.
India can’t rely on land sinks to meet stated carbon sink goal
To get to net zero under 1.5°C compatible pathways, in 2050 India will need to offset its still considerable emissions – 1373 MtCO₂e/year (excluding LULUCF) – by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches. In its 2022 NDC, India pledged an additional cumulative LULUCF carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂ by 2030. However, a recent study found that this pledge largely overestimates India’s carbon sink potential from forest restoration and available land, reinforcing the importance of rapid emissions reductions.
India could adopt a more ambitious conditional NDC
India's 2022 NDC aims to limit emissions to 136-160% increase above 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF). This falls short of driving substantial emissions reductions. A 1.5°C aligned conditional target would aim to limit emissions to a 54% increase above 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. By 2035, this increase would be limited to a maximum of 21% above 2005 levels. With current policies, India has already achieved its 2030 conditional target ahead of time, indicating India could adopt a more ambitious conditional (as well as unconditional) target.