India

Last update: 15 March 2022

Economy wide

For India’s domestic emissions to be in line with 1.5°C, they would need to peak soon and reduce as early as possible, aiming for a 2030 emissions level of 1.6 GtCO₂e/yr, equivalent to 16% below 2005 levels (range of 23-1%) below 2005 levels.

India's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2005
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

In November 2021 during COP26, India published an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) with a raised unconditional target of reducing the emissions intensity of the country’s GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. The previous target was 33-35%. Additionally, India announced a conditional target to increase non-fossil capacity in its power sector to 500 GW by 2030, subject to international support.

Current policy projection

The conditional target, if enacted, would increase the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 116% above 2005 levels to 3.9 GtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF. This means lower total emissions than the unconditional intensity target. However, the conditional target is not ambitious enough as it is in line with India’s current policy scenario.

Fair share

It needs to be emphasised that closing the gap between India’s current fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker and it’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emission pathway will require substantial financial and other support from developed countries.

2050 Ambition

1.5°C compatible pathways see India reaching GHG emissions levels of 0.5-0.7 GtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2050, and CO₂ emissions of 0-0.4 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF. This equals emissions reductions of 60-70% and 66-93%, respectively below 2005 levels.¹

Decarbonisation

On the road to net zero, India will need to develop its land-based sinks to compensate for its remaining emissions. In addition, international support will need to be provided for technological carbon dioxide removal approaches such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or direct air capture and storage (DAC).

Negative technologies

Our analysis shows that power sector may need to contribute up to 0.2 GtCO₂/yr negative emissions by mid-century to be on a 1.5°C pathway. However, this is dependent on the speed with which zero carbon technologies can be adopted before 2050. Pathways with renewable electricity shares near 80% in 2030 achieve the required emissions reductions to avoid negative emissions technologies.

Net zero

India does not have a net zero target, nor has it yet submitted a long-term low emissions strategy.²

Sectors

Power

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require the share of non-fossil power generation to reach 70-79% by 2030, much higher than the 50% specified in India’s conditional target. For electricity this translates to around 80-90% share of non-fossil electricity capacity.³
Coal and gas would need to be phased out before 2040, with renewables reaching 93–98% to reach a decarbonised power sector by 2040. This stands in contrast with the country’s current plans to expand its coal capacity which puts the country at risk of locking itself into a carbon intensive pathway at a time when solar tariff are 20% cheaper than the NTPC generated coal-fired power tariff. Solar tariffs declined around 20% between 2016 and 2019.⁴^,⁵

Buildings

The building sector in India consumed 25% of the total primary energy and 24% of electricity in 2019. 1.5°C compatible pathways show rapid electrification of the sector, with share of electricity consumption reaching 44-80% in 2030 and 77-90% by 2050.
Solid biomass is an important energy source particularly for cooking, its share ranging from 52-53% in 2020. All scenarios see a rapid decline in biomass demand going down to 2% by 2050, and a phase-out of coal and natural gas by 2050 in direct consumption.
To enhance energy efficiency of buildings, the Indian government has extended the national building code (ECBC) to apply to residential buildings instead of only commercial buildings.

Transport

India’s transport sector is completely dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil. The share of electricity in energy use is insignificant.
1.5°C compatible pathway shows a rapid electrification of the transport sector, with increased electricity share in the sector’s energy mix of 10-60% by 2030 and 44-89% by 2050.
Indian government has put forward a policy framework to increase the penetration of electric vehicles on the market and the blending of biofuel in petrol.

Industry

Industry is the most energy consuming sector in India, responsible for 38% of primary energy consumption and 42% of electricity consumption in 2019.
Primary energy demand in the sector is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, with a 58% share in 2020. 1.5°C compatible pathways show an increasing share of electricity in the industry energy mix in the range of 30-31% by 2030 and 46-71% by 2050.
All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions of the industrial sector between 59-60% by 2030 and 88-96% by 2050.
All 1.5°C compatible pathways show a declining trend of process emissions from 2025.

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. India. September 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
The generation share was translated to approximate capacity shares based on an assumption of a similar split across technologies as the 175 GW target. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. India. September 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
IRENA. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020. (2021). ↩

What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?