What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
India’s power system is heavily reliant on coal with an estimated emission intensity of around 632 gCO₂/kWh in 2019, with coal providing almost three quarters of all electricity. Recent years have seen a drop in this intensity, which stood at over 800 gCO₂/kWh for most of the last two decades.1,2,3
India’s current installed coal capacity is more than 200 GW, and according to recent projection of Central Electricity Authority this will increase to 266 GW by 2029-30.4 By contrast, Paris Agreement compatible pathways see coal phased out of power production in the mid-2030s driving the full decarbonisation of the power sector by around 2040.5 This means that any plant built today would risk turning into a stranded asset quickly in a 1.5°C scenario. In its National Electricity Plan of 2018, India had initially planned to retire a total of 45 GW coal powered plants between 2017-20278, but this has been revised to retire only a total of 25 GW between 2017-2027.6
Renewable power is starting to take hold in India, and at the federal level, the government has a target of 175 GW total renewable power capacity by 2022 (100 GW solar PV, 60 GW wind, 10 GW bioenergy and 5 GW small scale hydropower). India further aims at reaching 450 GW by 2030 and is expected to achieve a generation share of 40-43% in 2030. While India has increased its renewables installed capacity to 151GW in December 2021 from 39 GW in 2015, coal based power generation is still increasing at an annual average rate of 6% since 2015.7,8
However, for a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, India would need a share of renewable energy of 70-79% by 2030 and around 90-98% by 2040, equivalent to increasing from 1 EJfinal (0.3 PWh) in 2019, to 2 EJfinal in 2030, and 5-11 EJfinal in 2050. A share of non-fossil power generation of 70-80% in 2030 translates to around 80-90% share in non-fossil electric capacity.
To achieve these levels India could strengthen its renewables targets, replacing the current plan for coal power plant additions. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, combined with the fact that new solar PV is now significantly cheaper to build in India than new coal power, would provide additional economic signals.9
India's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
In the analysed 1.5°C pathways, India’s power sector reaches full decarbonisation around 2040 through a phase out of coal and gas by around 2035. In 1.5°C pathways reaching high renewable shares later, the power sector starts contributing negative emissions from the 2020s reaching up to 12% (of electricity produced) by 2050. This will contribute in abating around 0.2 GtCO₂, to balance earlier emissions and/or in other sectors. Higher penetration of renewables would reduce the country reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and the related investment costs.
India's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in India to be on the order of USD 32 to 160 billion by 2030 and 30 to 328 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the later can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
India's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
723
|
146 to
167
|
-50 to
1
|
-43 to
-1
|
2039 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-80 to
-77%
|
-107 to
-100%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
73
|
13 to
13
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
4
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2032 to
2034
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
20
|
70 to
79
|
93 to
98
|
94 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
77
|
19 to
23
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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