What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
India
Power sector transformation unlocks economy-wide decarbonisation
India’s clean power expansion is the central enabler of emissions reductions across all sectors. Scaling up solar, wind, storage, and transmission infrastructure, alongside efforts to phase out coal by 2040, will determine the pace of decarbonisation in transport, industry, and buildings. Policy certainty on grid investment, storage procurement, and renewable integration is critical to anchor private capital and avoid infrastructure bottlenecks.
India's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Electrification and green hydrogen can reshape heavy industry
Heavy industry decarbonisation depends on rapid electrification and scaling green hydrogen for steel, fertilisers, and chemicals, supported by reliable clean power and infrastructure. At the same time, efficiency, circularity, and low-clinker cement are essential to address process emissions and contain long-term energy demand growth.
Electric mobility cuts oil dependence and transport emissions
By 2035, electrification can meet 23% of India’s transport needs. The transition can be accelerated by prioritising electrification of two- and three-wheelers, buses, and urban fleets; segments with high utilisation and clear economics. Strengthening policies such as FAME, PM E-DRIVE, and public bus electrification, alongside managed charging and grid planning, can reduce oil dependence, avoid excessive infrastructure strain, and support domestic manufacturing.
Efficient, all-electric buildings can meet rising cooling demand sustainably
Rapid growth in cooling demand makes building efficiency and electrification critical for the country. Strong enforcement of building codes, appliance standards, and cooling policies can prevent emissions lock-in while improving comfort and affordability. By 2050, electricity can account for 84% of buildings’ energy demand. Scaling of efficient air conditioning, passive cooling design, and clean electricity supply ensures rising living standards without proportionally increasing emissions or system costs.