What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

In 2022, India’s emissions reached 3.48 GtCO2e excluding LULUCF. Nearly three quarters of these emissions came from fossil fuel combustion in the energy sector, 16% from agriculture, and most of the remainder from industrial processes and waste.1 Within the energy sector, electricity generation and industry were the largest end-use sectors.2

India emits 7% of global GHGs, making it the third largest emitter in the world.3 However, India’s per capita emissions are half the global average.4

India has made commitments to reduce its emissions intensity by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030, and it has also included a voluntary pledge to double its energy efficiency rate by 2030 in the G20 presidency declaration.5

As one of the world's largest emitters, India’s actions are crucial for the world to meet the 1.5˚C limit. It is now the world's most populous country and one of the fastest-growing economies, which is driving the energy demand as between 2022 and 2030 the electricity demand is projected to increase by 6.4% annually.6 India is also one of the most climate vulnerable countries and climate stressors will in turn lead to a substantial rise in energy demand by 2030. More effort is needed to decouple rising energy demand from emissions through deployment of renewable energy. To implement the necessary emissions reductions, however, significant international support is needed.

India's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

Despite a significant increase in renewable energy development, coal continues to dominate the primary energy mix, supplying 47% of energy in 2023.7,8

Current policy encourages further coal production to meet growing energy demand, leading domestic coal production to reach a record high of 1 Gt in 2024-25 compared to 892 Mt in 2022-23.9 As of July 2025, another 27 GW of new coal capacity is currently under construction and 92 GW is in pre-construction, around 50% increase from the current installed capacity of 222 GW.10 The average age of India’s current coal fleet is 15 years and, without an effective transition plan, India is risking the development of a large fleet of stranded coal assets.11

India’s fossil fuel subsidies have declined by approximately 70% over the last decade. However, they remain eight times higher than those for renewables. This decline in overall support for fossil fuels masks highly different trends for different fuels; while oil and gas subsidies for retail consumers have dropped by 80%, coal subsidies for industry have been increasing since 2021.12

In 2023, oil constituted 25% of total primary energy supply and served as the predominant energy source for the transportation sector, holding a 92% share.13 While the share of fossil gas in primary energy use remains relatively low (5%), there has been a noticeable rise in the utilisation of gas-based power plants. Additionally, India is actively pursuing efforts to boost LNG use, particularly in the residential sector.14

Targets and commitments

Unconditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 45% reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Additional (cumulative) LULUCF carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030.15

When excluding LULUCF, India’s unconditional target translates to:

  • 4987 MtCO2e or 169% above 2005 levels by 203016

Conditional 2030 target in 2022 NDC:

As expressed by the country:

  • 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.17

When excluding LULUCF, India’s conditional target translates to:

  • 4383-4816 MtCO2e or 136-160% above 2005 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).18

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