What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
In 2019, emissions reached 3.21GtCO2e excluding LULUCF. Nearly three quarters of emissions came from the combustion of fossil fuels in the energy sector, 15% from agriculture, and most of the remainder from industrial processes and waste.1 Within the energy sector, electricity generation and industry were responsible for 36% and 18% of total emissions respectively, and transport for 10%.2
In 2021, India’s total emissions reached around 3.4 GtCO2e excluding LULUCF.3
India emits 7% of global GHGs, making it the third largest emitter in the world.4
India has made commitments to reduce its emissions intensity by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030, and it has also included a voluntary pledge to double its energy efficiency rate by 2030 in the G20 presidency declaration.5
As one of the world's largest emitters, India’s actions are crucial for the world to meet the 1.5˚C limit and it is not possible to attain on its own without significant international support. Moreover, India is now the world's most populous country and one of the fastest-growing economies, which in turn will lead to a substantial rise in energy demand by 2030. More effort is needed to decouple this surge in energy demand from emissions by increasing deployment of renewable energy. However, in order to get to these levels of emissions, India would require substantial finance and other means of support.
India's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Despite increased renewable energy development, coal continues to dominate the mix, supplying 47% of primary energy supply in 2023.6
Current policy encourages further coal production to meet the increased energy demand, leading domestic coal production to a record high of almost 1000 Mt in 2023-24 compared to 892 Mt in 2022-23.7 Another 51GW of additional coal capacity planned to come online with projects various stages of planning or completion.8,9 This places India in deep risk of stranded coal assets.
India’s fossil fuel subsidies have declined by approximately 70% over the last decade. However, it remains eight times higher than those for renewables. However, the decline in overall support for fossil fuels masks highly different trends for different fuels: support for oil and gas for retail consumers have dropped by 80% while subsidies for coal have started to increase since 2021 going towards industries.10
In 2023, oil constituted 23% of the total primary energy supply and serves as the predominant energy source for the transportation sector, holding a 92% share.11 While the share of fossil gas in primary energy use remains relatively low (5%), there has been a noticeable rise in the utilisation of gas-based power plants. Additionally, India is actively pursuing efforts to boost LNG use, particularly in the residential sector.
Targets and commitments
Unconditional 2022 NDC Target:
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As expressed by the country: 45% reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Additional (cumulative) LULUCF carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030.12
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When excluding LULUCF, India’s unconditional target translates to: 4632 MtCO2e or 156% above 2005 levels by 2030.13
Conditional 2022 NDC Target:
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As expressed by the country: 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.14
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When excluding LULUCF, India’s conditional target translates to: 4214-4504 MtCO2e or 133-149% above 2005 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF).15
Long-term target:
- India has pledged to achieve net zero by 2070.16