What is United Arab Emirates's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Arab Emirates
Economy-wide
The level of ambition required for a 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway is a 55-63% reduction by 2030 below 2015 levels, which translates to absolute emissions of 95-116 MtCO₂e/yr.
United Arab Emirates' total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
-
2030 NDC
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2022, raising its initial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target from 23.5% to 31% below business as usual by 2030. The new NDC target aims to reduce emissions to 208 MtCO2e/yr including LULUCF by 2030,1 equivalent to 214 MtCO2e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2030. This corresponds to a 17% reduction below 2015 levels.1
Current policy
Under current policies, the UAE’s emissions are projected to range between 1% below to 3% above 2015 levels.
2050 Ambition
The UAE intends to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the UAE’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) would need to reach a level of 22–32 MtCO2e/yr, or 88–92% below 2015 levels by 2050. Energy sector decarbonisation will be the key driver of the necessary emissions reductions.
Remaining emissions
To reach net zero emissions, the UAE will likely need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through carbon dioxide removals (CDR), either from the land sector or through technological approaches. Our analysis shows that the power sector could contribute negative emissions of up to -3 MtCO2/yr in 2050, mostly based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Achieving a high share of renewable energy generation would allow the country to rely less on CDR technologies, which are prohibitively expensive and not yet available at scale.
Sectoral Decarbonisation
Power
• Fossil gas accounted for around 97% of total power generation in the UAE in 2019. To be 1.5°C compatible, the country would need to phase out gas in the early 2040s. This transformation would require a rapid ramping up of generation from renewable energy sources. Renewable energy should reach a 59-79% share by 2030 and 98100% by 2050, compared to a 3% share (mostly solar) in 2019.
• A higher share of renewable energy in the power mix would help to avoid a future reliance on carbon removal technologies and reduce the risk of carbon lock-in from fossil fuel-based generation.
• The carbon intensity of electricity generation in the UAE would need to decline from around 505 gCO2/kWh in 2019 to essentially 0 gCO2/kWh by 2040. In its National Energy Strategy 2050, the UAE outlines a target of increasing “clean“ energy, including renewables and nuclear, to 50% of installed capacity by 2050. It also aims to reduce CO2 emissions from power generation by 70% by 2050.
Sectors
Transport
• The UAE aims to reduce transport sector emissions by 1% compared to 2019. To be 1.5°C aligned, transport emissions would need to be 33-45% lower than 2019 levels.
• The UAE government should adopt measures to facilitate the phasing out of fossil fuel vehicles and policies that support electric vehicles (EVs) in order to be 1.5°C compatible.