Kazakhstan

Last update: 1 January 2023

Economy wide

The level of ambition required for a 1.5°C compatible NDC domestic action target is 178 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF) by 2030, equivalent to 54% below 1990 levels.

Kazakhstan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Kazakhstan adopted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2016 and has not yet submitted an update.¹ The NDC aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030, conditional on international support. When excluding LULUCF, this is equivalent to 293 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or 24% below 1990 levels by 2030.²

Fair share

Kazakhstan did not submit an updated NDC as agreed under the Paris Agreement. As agreed at COP26 and reiterated in COP27, Kazakhstan would need to submit an updated NDC and strengthen its mitigation target for 2030. Closing the gap between Kazakhstan’s target and 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway could be made possible with and through international support.

2050 Ambition

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows that Kazakhstan would need to reach an emission levels of 51 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excluding LULUCF). This is equivalent to emissions reductions of 87% below 1990 levels by 2050.

Net zero CO₂

In 2020, President Tokayev announced Kazakhstan’s intention of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and in September 2021, the government published its Doctrine to achieve this.³^,⁴ While several elements of the target can be improved, the Doctrine does include clear economy-wide and sectoral emissions pathways.⁵

Decarbonisation

Decarbonising the energy sector is a key priority for achieving these emissions reductions, as it is responsible for 80% of total emissions.

Sectors

Power

The power sector is responsible for about one-third of Kazakhstan’s total emissions excluding LULUCF.⁶ Our analysis of 1.5°C pathways shows that Kazakhstan’s power sector carbon intensity could reach 30-200 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 from 490 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. This could be enabled by a rapid shift away from its fossil fuel reliance, decreasing unabated fossil fuels in the power mix from 89% in 2019 to 6-28% by 2030.
In these pathways, fossil fuel use would be displaced with an accelerated uptake of renewable energy from 11% of the power mix in 2019, to 70-94% by 2030.
Renewable targets in the 2013 Concept for Kazakhstan’s Transition to Green Economy aim to increase gas generation in the power mix and fall short of what is needed to be 1.5°C compatible. Government officials have claimed that reducing coal power generation to about 40% of the power mix in 2030 through the end-of-life decommissioning of coal plants would achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement; however, 1.5°C compatible pathways show coal would need to phase out of the power system by 2030.⁷

Buildings

Kazakhstan’s cold climate requires significant energy for heating; however, many Kazakhstanis lack access to clean and affordable options for space heating, leading to a high reliance on solid fuels, particularly coal.
Across 1.5°C pathways, building sector direct CO₂ emissions decline immediately from 2019, and the sector is fully decarbonised between 2042 and 2050. This is enabled by rapid electrification. 24-33% of buildings would be electrified by 2030 and 58-77% by 2050.
While the government has implemented energy efficiency policies, emissions from the residential sector are still largely unregulated under Kazakhstan’s Environmental Code, updated in 2021.⁸

Industry

In 1.5°C pathways, Kazakhstan’s industry sector energy mix is decarbonised by 2047, enabled largely by higher electrification rates, ramping up from 29% in 2019 to 50-67% by mid-century.
Kazakhstan’s process-related industry emissions have increased 65% since 2000, though they slightly declined between 2017-2019. Analysed 1.5°C pathways show Kazakhstan’s process-related emissions rapidly declining to be almost completely phased out as early as 2040.
Kazakhstan’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) covers the country’s main industries; however, the ETS only covers CO₂ emissions and previous phases of the scheme have had limited impact.⁹^,¹⁰

Transport

Kazakhstan’s direct CO₂ emissions from transportation increased by 24% from 2010 to 2019. Fossil fuels accounted for 95% of the transport sector’s final energy mix in 2019, almost entirely from oil-based fuels.
In 1.5°C pathways, CO₂ emissions from transport are phased out by between 2047 to 2052. This is supported by rapid electrification, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 21-40% by 2030 and 67-90% by 2050. Pathways with lower levels of electricity have higher shares of hydrogen or biofuels, reaching 25-70% and 3-14% of the transport energy mix by 2050, respectively.
Kazakhstan is a key land bridge connecting Europe and Asia, accounting for more than 80% of Central Asian rail freight activity.¹¹ This creates a large opportunity for electrified rail; however, recent investments in Kazakhstan are largely for road projects. The current share of electric vehicles (EVs) in Kazakhstan is low; however, the government has adopted some policies to support EV adoption and manufacturing.¹²

What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?