What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Kazakhstan’s building sector direct CO₂ emissions accounted for about 12% of total emissions in 2019. Since 1990, these emissions have increased drastically, more than 80-fold, despite declining for a brief period in the 90s. This increase is due to both an increase in demand and emissions intensity.
Kazakhstan's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Due to Kazakhstan’s cold climate, clean and affordable heating for buildings is essential. Many Kazakhstanis still rely on solid fuels for residential heating largely due to high electricity prices and lack of access to other alternatives such as district heating.1 This reliance on coal burning for residential heating is the largest source of air pollution in Kazakhstan.2 In 2019, Kazakhstan’s building sector was supplied largely by fossil fuels, with 34% from fossil gas, 23% by coal and 16% by oil. Electricity accounted for only 10% of final energy in 2019.
Across analysed pathways, building sector direct CO₂ emissions decline immediately and the sector is fully decarbonised between 2042 and 2050. Across most analysed pathways, this is enabled by rapid electrification. Pathways that show relatively lower electrification rates in 2050 show higher hydrogen and heat use. Increased electrification will drive decarbonisation of the sector only if the power sector itself is decarbonised (see power sector).
Emissions from the residential sector, such as from coal burning, are largely unregulated under Kazakhstan’s Environmental Code, updated in 2021. The government is working to extend its gas pipeline network and adopted energy efficiency requirements for new and renovated buildings in 2012. Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality anticipates residential buildings reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 and non-residential buildings by 2050. While the target for non-residential buildings is in-line with our decarbonisation benchmark, residential buildings would need to be decarbonised at least a full decade earlier to be 1.5°C compatible.
Kazakhstan's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
43
|
11 to
20
|
5 to
8
|
1 to
2
|
2042 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-54%
|
-89 to
-82%
|
-97 to
-96%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
10
|
24 to
33
|
44 to
61
|
58 to
77
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
16
|
10 to
57
|
7 to
66
|
19 to
70
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
2 to
7
|
3 to
45
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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