What is Kazakhstan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Transportation GHG emissions accounted for 15% of Kazakhstan’s national GHG emissions in 2017 (excl. LULUCF).1 Transport direct CO₂ emissions have increased by 24% since 2010. Fossil fuels accounted for 95% of the transport sector’s final energy mix in 2019, almost entirely from oil. The remaining 5% was supplied by electricity.
Kazakhstan's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across analysed pathways, direct CO₂ emissions from transport are eliminated by around 2050. This is supported by rapid electrification, reaching 21-40% by 2030 and 67-90% by 2050. Pathways that show lower penetration of electricity in the transport sector have higher shares of hydrogen or biofuels, reaching 25-70% and 3-14% of the transport energy mix by 2050, respectively. Under its carbon neutrality scenario, Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality expects electricity to account for 72% of transport energy demand by 2060, with a further 11% from biofuels and 8% from hydrogen.
As an important land bridge connecting European and Asian trade, Kazakhstan accounts for more than 80% of Central Asian rail freight activity.2 About one-quarter of Kazakhstan’s railway network is electrified.3 Rail also accounts for the majority of freight transport in Kazakhstan (about 60%); however, road projects account for about 80% of planned and under construction transport infrastructure investments.4 While the current share of electric vehicles (EVs) in Kazakhstan is low, the government has adopted some policies to support EV adoption and manufacturing.5
Kazakhstan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
16
|
10 to
10
|
3 to
5
|
1 to
1
|
2047 to
2052
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-41 to
-37%
|
-83 to
-67%
|
-95 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
5
|
21 to
40
|
49 to
80
|
67 to
90
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
3
|
2 to
9
|
3 to
14
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
4 to
22
|
5 to
62
|
25 to
70
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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