Data references for analysis based on the IPCC 6th Assessment Report
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "United Kingdom. September 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/uk/2023-09-22
BEIS & DESNZ, Provisional UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions National Statistics 2022. Inventory year: 2021.
BEIS & DESNZ, “Provisional UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions National Statistics 2022,” 2023, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics-2022.
Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.
Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2” (zenodo, March 2023), doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.
Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2022) v2.5” (Zenodo, 2023), doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10006301
IEA, World Energy Balances 2023
IEA, "World Energy Balances 2023" (IEA, 2023), iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances
IEA, Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy, 2023.
IEA, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy” (IEA, July 2023), iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "South Africa. November 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/south-africa/2023-11-23
National GHG Inventory Report: South Africa 2000-2020
Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, “National Inventory Report for South Africa: 2000 - 2020” (Republic of South Africa, 2023). dffe.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/8nationalgreenhousegasreport2022.pdf
PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Energy sub-sectors' emissions based on IEA GHG Emissions from Energy 2023.
Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2” (zenodo, March 2023), doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
IEA, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy” (IEA, July 2023), iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "Viet Nam. November 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/vietnam/2023-11-20
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2022
Climate Action Tracker, Mexico. December 2022. (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2022), climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico/2022-12-12
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "India. December 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/2023-12-04
Historical emissions: Senegal assumptions
Historical timeseries based on 2010 emissions provided in Senegal's 2020 NDC, converted to CO2 equivalents using global warming potentials from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. The timeseries from 1990-2009 and 2011-2021 is based on emissions growth rates using eimssions data from PRIMAP-Hist2023.
Gouvernment du Senegal. (2020). Contribution Déterminée au Nivau National du Senegal [National Determined Contribution of Senegal]. unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/CDNSenegal%20approuvée-pdf-.pdf
Gütschow, J., & Pflüger, M. (2023). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2021) v2.4.2 (2.4.2) [Data set]. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
NDC: Senegal assumptions
Senegal's conditional NDC is 29.5% below BAU by 2030 which translates to 59% above 2010 levels. 2010 base year emissions are provided in the NDC as reference for the BAU scenario. Bsae year emissions and NDC targets are excluding forestry contributions and biomass and total aggregated contribution to the NDC suggest that LULUCF emissions are excluded. We therefore assume that the NDC targets are excluding LULUCF. 2010 base year emissions provided in the NDC differs significantly from the PRIMAP-Hist historical source used in this analysis (around 28%), we therefore provide a range for the NDC. The upper bound of the NDC is based on an estimated BAU excluding LULUCF scaled to PRIMAP-Hist 2019 in AR4 global warming potentials. We then apply the conditional NDC emissions reduction target of -29.5%. The lower bound of the NDC is based on the provided NDC target converted to global warming potentials AR4 using the SAR/AR4 ratio from the PRIMAP-Hist 2019 dataset.
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "Türkiye. May 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/turkey/2023-05-12
UNFCCC National Inventory Submissions 2023
UNFCCC, “National Inventory Submissions 2023” (UNFCCC, 2023), unfccc.int/ghg-inventories-annex-i-parties/2023
Historical emissions: Pakistan assumptions
Historical timeseries is based on data from Pakistan's Second National Communication (SNC) for years 1994, 2008, 2012, and 2015 and data from Pakistan's 2021 NDC for year 2018. Emissions reported in the SNC and NDC are assumed to use global warming potentials from the IPCC's Second Assessment Report and are converted to potentials from the Fourth Assessment Report using emissions ratios from PRIMAP 2023. Linear interpolation is used inbetween these years. Emissions growth rates from the PRIMAP 2023 dataset were used for years 1990-1993 and 2019-2021. All data is excluding LULUCF.
Ministry of Climate Change. (2018). Pakistan's Second National Communication on Climate Change. unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/183625_Pakistan-NC2-1-Pakistan%20-%20Second%20National%20Communication%20on%20Climate%20Change%202018.pdf
Government of Pakistan. (2021). Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Pakistan%20Updated%20NDC%202021.pdf
Gütschow, J., & Pflüger, M. (2023). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2021) v2.4.2 (2.4.2) [Data set]. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
NDC: Pakistan assumptions
Pakistan’s NDC has a conditional target of 50% below business as usual (BAU) levels by 2030 (including LULUCF), with an unconditional component of 15% below BAU. Pakistan estimates that 2030 emissions under BAU will be 1603 MtCO₂e/yr including LULUCF, or a 227% increase from 2018 levels. Pakistan’s baseline emissions projections in their updated NDC appear to be unchanged from that given in the 2016 INDC. While the updated NDC only provides the aggregated BAU emissions value, the INDC gives a sectoral breakdown for 2030. We assume here that, like the aggregate, the sectoral composition of the baseline emissions has remained the same for the updated NDC, including BAU LULUCF projections for 2030. This is used to recalculate the BAU to exclude LULUCF.
Pakistan’s NDC does not specify the global warming potentials (GWPs) used; however, “an additional study” indicates that it may use GWPs from the IPCC's Second Assessment Report (SAR). Since the 1.5NPE uses GWPs from the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), we provide a range estimate for the NDC target with the lower bound assuming the BAU is reported in AR4 GWPs and the higher bound assuming the BAU is reported in SAR GWPs and thus needs to be converted. Therefore, for the higher bound, we converted the 2030 BAU projection excluding LULUCF to AR4 by scaling according to the ratio between SAR and AR4 historical emissions as provided in the PRIMAP-Hist dataset.
For both the higher and lower bound, we assume the level of ambition in non-LULUCF sectors is the same as the economy-wide ambition. We therefore apply a 50% reduction to both BAU estimates excluding LULUCF, giving a target range of 787-838 MtCO2e in 2030.
Government of Pakistan. (2021). Pakistan: Updated Nationally Determined Contributions 2021.unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Pakistan%20Updated%20NDC%202021.pdf
Gütschow, J., & Pflüger, M. (2023). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2021) v2.4.2 (2.4.2) [Data set]. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "China. November 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/2023-11-22
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2022
Climate Action Tracker, "Kenya. May 2022." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2022), climateactiontracker.org/countries/kenya/2022-05-10
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "Indonesia. December 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/2023-12-04
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "Nigeria. July 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/nigeria/2023-06-13
Sectoral emissions: Nigeria assumptions
Sectoral emisisons shares for Nigeria for energy, agriculture, industrial processes and waste are based on PRIMAP 2023 and shares for energy sub-sectors are based on IEA Greenhouse Gases from Energy 2023. Due to differences in emissions estiamtes for Nigeria across government sources as well as non-governmental source, we have scaled the sectoral emissions for Nigeria to total emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2019 from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) for consistency. The CAT constructs its historical estimate based on the historical estimate for year 2018 provided in Nigeria's 2021 NDC. More details on historical emissions estimates for Nigeria can be found on the Assumptions page for the CAT's Nigeria profile.
Climate Action Tracker, "Nigeria. July 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/nigeria/2023-06-13
Johannes Gütschow and Mika Pflüger, “The PRIMAP-Hist National Historical Emissions Time Series (1750-2021) v2.4.2” (zenodo, March 2023), doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
IEA, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy” (IEA, July 2023), iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "Japan. July 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/2023-11-30
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Climate Action Tracker, "USA. November 2023." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2023), climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/2023-11-01
Historical emissions: Bangladesh assumptions
Historical timeseries is based on data from Bangladesh's First Biennial Update Report for 2013-2019 emissions. Emissions growth rates from the PRIMAP 2023 dataset were used for years 1990-2012. All data is excluding LULUCF.
Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change. (2023). Bangladesh: First Biennial Update Report. unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Updated%20BUR1%20Report_15_11_2023.pdf
Gütschow, J., & Pflüger, M. (2023). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2021) v2.4.2 (2.4.2) [Data set]. Zenodo. doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7727475
NDC: Bangladesh assumptions
In 2021 Bangladesh submitted an updated NDC with an unconditional emissions reduction target of 6.73% (27.53 MtCO2e/yr) below BAU levels by 2030, and a conditional target of 15% (61.9 MtCO2e/yr) by 2030. The conditional reduction is in addition to the proposed reductions in the unconditional scenario. Compared to Bangladesh’s first NDC which only covered energy-related emissions from the power, transport and industry sectors, the updated NDC covers additional sectors following IPCC guidelines - energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, forestry and other land use and waste. As the updated NDC does not explicitly mention the global warming potential (GWP) used, we use values as they are provided by the NDC. Our analysis is based on the GWP from the 4th Assessment Report (AR4).
The NDC update uses 2012 as the base year following the “Third National Communication” of Bangladesh. When the sector wise inventory data is converted using GWP of AR4, there is a discrepancy between emissions from the energy and IPPU sectors between the NDC update and the 3rd National Communication.
Sectoral emissions: Bangladesh's First Biennial Update Report
Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change. (2023). Bangladesh: First Biennial Update Report. unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Updated%20BUR1%20Report_15_11_2023.pdf
NDC: Algeria assumptions
Algeria’s 2015 INDC sets a conditional target of 22% emissions reductions below Business-As-Usual (BAU). The BAU scenario is however not provided throughout the NDC. In order to quantify Algeria’s targeted emissions level by 2030, we estimated two different BAU scenarios: one based on the last 10 years’ emissions growth rates from the country, and one based on the RCP4.5 SSP2. We then apply the respective conditional and unconditional targets by assuming two scenarios of emissions reductions in the LULUCF sector: assuming equal emissions reduction efforts across the different sectors, including LULUCF, and assuming a third of the efforts applied to the LULUCF sector. For the latter, the NDC specifies three categories of actions: energy, waste and forestry; so, we assume 1/3 of effort goes to forestry. We take in both cases the maximum and minimum levels of the combined scenarios as the range. This leads us to emissions levels targeted by the country by 2030 of 244-315 MtCO₂e for the conditional NDC and 291-351 MtCO₂e for the unconditional NDC excluding LULUCF or 3% below 2015 levels to 25% above 2015 levels and 16-39% above 2015 levels by 2030, respectively.
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
Climate Action Tracker, "Brazil. 2024." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2024), [forthcoming].
Sectoral emissions: Sistema de Estimativa de Emissões e Remoções de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SEEG) 2023
Observatório do Clima (OC), “Sistema de Estimativa de Emissões e Remoções de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SEEG) [Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG)],” 2023.
Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
Climate Action Tracker, "European Union. February 2024." (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, 2024), climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/2024-02-06