Jamaica

Economy wide

Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Jamaica would need to reduce its domestic emissions by 44% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF.

Jamaica's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

2030 NDC

Jamaica’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is significantly more ambitious than the country’s first NDC. However, it only covers the energy and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Based on our assumptions, we have estimated Jamaica’s conditional NDC targets in 2030 to be around 14.0 MtCO₂e which corresponds to a decrease of 6% compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.¹

2050 Ambition

Jamaica is in the process of developing its Long-Term Emissions Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy (LTS). Our analysis shows that to be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country’s total GHG emissions would have to reduce by 62–86% by 2050 compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.

Fair share

To decarbonise its economy in line with 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways, Jamaica will need international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building.

Sectors

Power

1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that the share of renewable energy in Jamaica’s power mix should be between 57% and 72% in 2030.
Currently, the country targets a 20% renewable energy share by 2030 and is in the process of updating the target to 50% renewable energy share by 2030.²^,³

Transport

To be in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Jamaica’s transport sector would need to fully decarbonise between 2036 and 2050 at the latest.
This pathway would require a minimum of 17% of the sector’s energy demand to be met by electricity, hydrogen and biofuels in 2030, rising to 95% by 2050.

Note that there are significant discrepancies between Jamaica’s reported emissions from 2016 in its Biennial Update Report, reflected in the dataset used in this analysis PRIMAP-Hist, and Jamaica’s Long Term Strategy Recommendations based on Climate Watch GHG emissions dataset. As Jamaica’s updated NDC only covers the energy and LULUCF sectors, we have assumed an emissions growth for the IPPU and Waste sectors following the last 10 years trend, and for the agriculture sector, that the share of emissions in 2030 remains the same as the current share in total GHG emissions. ↩
Ministry of Energy. National Renewable Energy Policy 2009 – 2030 … Creating a Sustainable Future. Energy Policy. (2010). ↩
Cooper, R. Jamaica to run on 50% renewable energy by 2030. Climate Action. (2018). ↩

What is Jamaica's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?