What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
China
Expanding renewables, grids and storage can decarbonise the power sector before mid-century
Even as electricity demand grows out to 2060, full 1.5°C-aligned power sector decarbonisation can be achieved in the late 2040s. Electrification-driven efficiency gains will help reduce overall energy demand, reinforcing the need to sustain strong solar and wind growth. Delivering this transition would require China to continue to accelerate renewables deployment, strengthen transmission and system flexibility, digitalise the grid, expand build-out storage, introduce market reforms and align financial incentives to mobilise clean investment.
China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
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Electrification is key for industrial decarbonisation
Despite renewable power mandates and carbon pricing supporting electrification, reliance on fossil fuels persists, particularly in the chemicals sector. To align China’s industry sector with 1.5°C, full decarbonisation would need to occur in the 2040s. This can be achieved by scaling up renewables-based electrification and other low carbon technologies such as hydrogen, with highly efficient electrification driving a decline in sectoral energy demand after a 2030 peak. A greater alignment between financial incentives and emissions reductions will be critical to achieving near-zero industrial emissions by mid-century.
Sustaining EV expansion can further decarbonise transport and enhance energy security
China’s transport sector is cutting emissions through rapid EV adoption, a trend consistent with 1.5°C. Supported by tighter efficiency standards, expanding charging infrastructure, and emerging vehicle-to-grid integration, electrification can accelerate further. As electricity is far more efficient than fossil fuels, yielding significant energy savings, scaling up renewables-based electrification will be key to phasing out expensive oil imports, enhancing energy security, and supporting power sector decarbonisation.