What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
China
Closing China’s 2030 ambition gap
China’s 2022 NDC puts the country on a path to GHG emissions of 13.8-14.6 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), or 65-74% above 2005 levels. A 1.5°C compatible China would see its 2030 emissions fall to 6.8 GtCO₂e/yr or a 19% reduction below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF). When including LULUCF, this would be 4.8 GtCO2e/yr or 37% below 2005 levels by 2030. While China is leading globally in the renewable energy deployment, it still relies on coal. To close the gap, China would need to move away from coal.
Factsheet on China's 1.5ºC aligned emission levels for 2030 and 2035 can be accessed here.
China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
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China’s power sector in a 1.5°C world: less coal, more renewables
Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement means rapidly phasing down coal for electricity and further ratcheting up renewables. The Net Zero Commitments pathway would see 4800 GW total renewable installed capacity by 2030. This would require an annual investment of USD 305 billion in renewable capacity – primarily in solar.
Rapidly declining coal consumption can drive decarbonisation of China’s industry sector
Achieving global net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 requires rapid industrial decarbonisation, with China needing to significantly reduce its coal consumption. Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, coal use in Chinese industry would decline by 27% from 2021 levels by 2030, with coal nearly phased out by 2040 as electrification accelerates.
China’s rapid electrification of transportation: A step closer to net zero
China’s transport sector is undergoing a rapid shift. With electric vehicle (EV) sales starting to surpass fuel cars in 2024, China is likely to exceed its 40% new-energy vehicle target by 2030. Prioritising EVs in public transport, aiming for 80% EVs in buses and taxis by 2025, China’s urban EV boom could soon reach beyond private vehicles. These efforts, along with a peak in oil demand, bring China closer to its Net Zero goals.