What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
China
China’s power sector in a 1.5°C world: less coal, more renewables
While China is leading globally in renewable energy deployment, it still heavily relies on coal. Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement involves rapidly phasing down coal for electricity and further ratcheting up renewables. The Net Zero Commitments pathway would see 4830 GW of installed renewable capacity by 2030. This would require annual investments of USD 305 billion in renewable capacity alone.
China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Rapidly declining coal consumption can drive decarbonisation of China’s industry sector
Achieving global net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 requires rapid industrial decarbonisation, with China needing to significantly reduce its coal consumption. Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, coal use in Chinese industry would decline by 18% from 2022 levels by 2030, with coal nearly phased out by 2040 as electrification accelerates.
China’s rapid electrification of transportation: a step closer to net zero
New energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to grow their market share, with domestic NEVs expected to reach 50% of total car sales in 2025. With the oil demand for fuel having already peaked, China’s next steps towards a 1.5°C aligned transport sector will be to sustain momentum on EV uptake and take advantage of ultra-fast charging breakthroughs.
Closing China’s ambition gap
China’s 2022 NDC puts the country on a path to GHG emissions of 71-83% above 2005 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). A 1.5°C compatible China would see its 2030 emissions fall to a 14% reduction below 2005 levels (excluding LULUCF). When including LULUCF, this would be 32% below 2005 levels by 2030. China released its 2035 target on 25 September, 2025 and a full analysis of this NDC is in progress.