What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
China’s transport sector emitted around 908 MtCO₂ in 2022, with oil comprising 87% of its energy use. Domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to reach 50% of the total car sales in 2025, driven by trade-in programmes and the continued tax exemptions on NEV purchases.1
China's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In early 2025, China launched the first overseas green bond which attracts global capital to finance projects including clean transportation.2 Meanwhile, innovation is advancing rapidly, with technology breakthroughs leading in ultra-fast charging that can deliver a 400km (250 miles) range in five minutes. Together, policy and technological advances are pushing China closer to the Net Zero Commitments pathway.3
Under this pathway, oil demand in China’s transport sector would peak before 2025. An IEA report suggests China’s oil demand has already plateaued due to growing EV adoption and structural change in the economy.4 In the 1.5ºC compatible pathway analysed here, renewables could account for 50% of transportation energy demand by 2050 as the share of electricity rapidly increases. According to the Climate Action Tracker, China would need to achieve 100% EV sales and a 42% stock share of EV light duty vehicles by 2030 to align with a 1.5°C pathway, reinforcing the need to sustain momentum in EV uptake.5
China's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
885
|
794 to
794
|
622 to
622
|
445 to
445
|
276 to
276
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-10 to
-10%
|
-30 to
-30%
|
-50 to
-50%
|
-69 to
-69%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
5
|
13 to
13
|
23 to
23
|
34 to
34
|
47 to
47
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
1 to
1
|
2 to
2
|
3 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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