What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
China’s transport sector emitted around 995 Mt CO₂ in 2021, with oil comprising 87% of its energy use. Electric vehicles (EV) sales are booming in China, with a share of 38% in new car sales in 2023.1 EV sales surpassed fuel car sales since July, making up 52% of new car sales in September 2024.2 It is very likely that China will overachieve its target of 40% new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales by 2030.3
China's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Producer subsidies for NEVs ended in 2022, but tax exemptions for consumers will persist through to 2027 to support market-driven growth and manage subsidy costs.4
China has prioritised accessibility and electrification in public transport, creating opportunities for a potential modal shift and reduced emissions. China aims to raise the share of EVs in the public transport system to 80% in key areas, including bus and taxi services, by 2025.5 This may result in decreased energy demand in China’s transport sector, which would put China closer to the Net Zero Commitment pathway.
China’s EV expansion has been primarily concentrated in the urban centres, leaving rural areas lagging behind. With the looming risk of decreased international demand due to the trade barriers from the EU, the US, and Canada, slowly Chinese EV makers have started to explore rural markets as well.6
Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, oil demand in China’s transport sector would peak before 2025. A study from the Climate Action Tracker finds that achieving 1.5°C compatibility would require 100% EV sales and a 42% stock share of EV light duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2030, reinforcing the need for continued EV promotion.7
China's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
995
|
794 to
794
|
622 to
622
|
445 to
445
|
276 to
276
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-20 to
-20%
|
-37 to
-37%
|
-55 to
-55%
|
-72 to
-72%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
4
|
13 to
13
|
23 to
23
|
34 to
34
|
47 to
47
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
1 to
1
|
2 to
2
|
3 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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