What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
China’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) reached 14.5 GtCO2e in 2022 (up from 13.4GtCO2e in 2019 and 8.4 GtCO2e in 2005) making it the world’s largest emitter accounting for 29% of global emissions in 2022.1 In 2019, the energy sector contributed 77% of China’s emissions (with the GHG emissions from its power generation and industrial energy demand contributing 56% of the total), while industrial processes accounted for 14% (excluding. LULUCF).2
China’s GHG emissions have continued to grow rapidly in recent years but may slow down due to structural changes in the economy, slower GDP growth and the rise of renewable energy use, as well as nuclear.3 China’s CO₂ emissions are projected to peak before 2025, and may have already done so in 2023 – mainly due to a surge in renewable energy generation.4 The carbon intensity of China’s economy has also dropped, with a 46% decline below 2005 levels in 2021.5
While China is leading globally in renewable energy deployment, it continues to rely on coal for primary energy with the justification of ensuring energy security. China’s emphasis on balancing energy security with decarbonisation could lead to a near miss of its 18% carbon intensity reduction target by 2025 under its 14th Five-Year Plan.6 In a work plan released in August 2024, China signalled that after the country’s CO2 emissions have peaked, reducing absolute emissions would be a priority.7 While it is likely China will meet its 2022 NDC targets, more effort is needed to put the country on a 1.5°C compatible trajectory.
China's 2019 GHG emissions
excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
In 2022, China’s primary energy supply accounted for nearly 26% of the global total. In the same year, coal provided 61% of China’s primary energy and renewables only 10%.8
China has positioned itself as a global leader in renewables, projected to account for 40% of global renewable capacity expansion between 2019-2024. In July 2024, China achieved its 1200 GW wind and solar capacity target six years ahead of schedule, reaching 1206 GW with forecasts for 1310 GW by year-end.9
However, despite declining utilisation rates of existing coal plants, China was responsible for 95% of the world’s new coal power construction in 2023 and plans to bring 80 GW of new coal capacity online in 2024 alone. 10 This pushes China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target, and any chance of aligning with 1.5°C, further out of reach despite growing renewables capacity.
The industry sector also plays a significant role in China’s energy sector, accounting for 60% of final energy consumption in 2023.11 This is driven largely by cement and steel industries. China has set CO2 peaking targets for these industries as well as aluminium for 2030, five years later than previously discussed.12
Targets and commitments
2022 NDC target:
- As expressed by the country:
Have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25% by 2030.
Increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level by 2030.
Bring total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.
Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level by 2030 (role of LULUCF unclear).[^13]
- When excluding LULUCF, China’s target translates to:
61-74% above 2005 levels by 2030, or 13510-14570 MtCO2e[^14]
Long-term target:
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China aims to achieve carbon dioxide neutrality before 2060 (excluding other gases).
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By 2060, over 80% of China’s energy consumption will be met by non-fossil fuels.[^15]