What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions profile

In 2022, China’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) reached 15.2 GtCO2e (80% above 2005 levels). The energy sector accounted for 78% of China’s emissions (mainly from power generation and industrial energy demand which together contributed 58% of the total energy sector emissions), while industrial processes accounted for 13%.

China’s GHG emissions may be slowing down due to energy conservation measures, the rise of renewable energy and nuclear use, and improvements to industrial energy efficiency.1 China’s CO₂ emissions fell for the first time in the first half of 2025 – mainly due to more renewable use in the power mix. This is in line with prior projections, putting China on track to meet its carbon peaking and carbon intensity reduction targets by 2030.2,3,4,5

China is currently not on track to meet its domestic and international energy intensity targets. The 14th Five-Year Plan set targets to lower energy intensity by 13.5% and emissions intensity by 18% from 2020 to 2025.6 Yet, with 2026 fast approaching, these objectives are unlikely to be met. Current projections indicate that emissions intensity will drop by only about 16–17%, even if the economy grows at the planned 5%.

Meeting the 2030 NDC goal of a 65% reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels will therefore require a marked increase in ambition and more decisive policy action in the 15th Five-Year Plan.

In 2024, China signalled that, after CO₂ emissions peak, it would prioritise reducing absolute emissions and expand the sectoral coverage of the mandatory national carbon market, which currently covers 60% of its CO₂ emissions. 7,8 By 2027, the focus of the mandatory carbon market for major industries will switch from capping carbon intensity to capping total carbon emissions, while a voluntary market will be established to cover other GHGs.9 10 In its 2035 NDC, China has pledged an economy-wide net GHG emissions reduction target of 7%-10% by 2035 below peaking level, while keeping the room for speculation on when the peak will be reached.11 This target is widely seen as overly conservative as the trajectory of current policy is showing a 10-16% decline between 2025 and 2035 (excluding LULUCF).12

China's 2022 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy overview and main policy gaps

In 2023, coal supplied 55% of primary energy consumption.13 China's oil demand for fuels may have plateaued, mainly due to the growing adoption of EVs.14 While non-fossil fuel consumption reached 18% in 2023 and is on track to meet the 25% target by 2030, the challenge to phase out coal from the energy system persists.15

China’s wind and solar capacity reached nearly 1.7 TW in July 2025, achieving a 42% year-on-year increase from 2024.16 With this China has already surpassed is 2030 NDC target of 1.4 TW of solar and wind capacity by 2030 ahead of the schedule. In Q1 2025, its solar and wind capacity surpassed its domestic thermal (coal and gas) capacity. Wind and solar operating capacity (1.7 TW) is more than the combined total of the operating utility-scale capacity of the EU, US, and India.17 The use of renewables to meet rising power demand in Q1 2025, combined with a decrease in coal-fired generation, led to the first time in China’s history that power sector CO2 emissions declined.18

As of July 2025, China has an additional 1.3 TW of planned solar and wind capacity in the pipeline.19 Ambitious plans to more than double its energy storage capacity by 2027, build an AI-driven energy management system and a unified electricity market, and improve localised pricing mechanisms are likely to accelerate renewables development and consumption.20,21,22,23 Nuclear is also gaining support through the first Atomic Energy Law (2025).24

Yet coal remains the defining challenge. In 2024, China’s power sector consumed more than one-third of global coal.25 The industry sector is also a key consumer with the coal-to-chemicals industry driving its growth.26,27 In 2024, China started to build 94.5 GW of new coal power capacity (mainly from the 2022-2023 permitting period), resumed 3.3 GW of suspended projects and approved 67 GW of new coal power capacity.28,29 China’s first Energy Law (2024) endorses coal’s role in the energy system, which could thwart China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target. While China has been considering converting old coal plants to nuclear power stations, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will supersede previous designs of coal in the energy system. 30,31,32

Targets and commitments

In November 2025 China submitted its NDC 3.0. Analysis of the target, including values which are directly comparable to our pathways, is underway and will be made available.

2035 target in 2025 NDC

As expressed by the country:

  • (translated): “The absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target in China's 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution covers the entire economy and includes all greenhouse gases. The year of the peak in net greenhouse gas emissions will serve as the base year, with 2035 as the target year.”

  • By 2035, China's economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 7% to 10% from the peak level, striving to do better.

  • The share of non-fossil fuel consumption in total energy consumption will reach over 30%.

  • The total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation will reach more than 6 times the 2020 level, striving to reach 3,600 GW.

  • The forest stock volume will reach over 24bn m3

  • New energy vehicles (NEVs) will become the mainstream of new vehicle sales.

  • The national carbon market will cover major high-emitting industries

  • A climate-resilient society will be essentially established.33

2030 target in 2022 NDC

As expressed by the country:

  • Have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

  • Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25% by 2030.

  • Increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level by 2030.

  • Bring total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.

  • Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from the 2005 level by 2030 (role of LULUCF unclear).34

When excluding LULUCF, China’s target translates to:

  • 64-83% above 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF), or 13,803-15,452 MtCO2e35

Long-term target

  • China aims to achieve carbon dioxide neutrality before 2060 (excluding other gases).

  • By 2060, over 80% of China’s energy consumption will be met by non-fossil fuels.36

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