What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Emissions

In 2024, China’s GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) increased by 1% compared to 2023, a slowdown from the 4% growth recorded for the previous year. Total emissions (excluding LULUCF) reached 15.1 GtCO₂e, 79% above 2005 levels. The power sector accounted for 41% of total emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2024, followed by industry at 33% (19% for energy use and 14% industrial processes). As the largest emitter in the world, China is also the largest investor in renewable energy and exporter of green technology.1,2,3

CO₂ emissions accounted for around 80% of total emissions. Since March 2024, CO₂ emissions have been “flat or falling”, reinforcing independent analyses that China’s CO₂ emissions would have peaked by 2025. If proven correct, this would mean that China will peak its emissions well ahead of its 2030 carbon peaking target.4,5

While our graph shows the latest available data from 2024, independent analysis for 2025 shows a decline in CO₂ emissions of 0.3% compared to the previous year.6 If the chemicals sector is excluded, the overall CO₂ decline would have been around 2% (the chemicals sector saw 12% emissions growth due to fossil fuel-based chemical industry expansion).7,8 The 2025 decrease was primarily driven by lower oil consumption from rapid EV uptake in transport, continued expansion of renewables and nuclear power in electricity generation, and reduced demand for construction materials amid the continued real estate downturn.9,10,11,12

China's 2024 GHG emissions

excluding LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.

Energy

Abundant coal reserves have historically shaped China's energy system. Accessing these domestic resources is seen by China as foundational to its energy security.13 In 2023, coal accounted for 61% of China’s total energy supply, followed by oil at 18% and fossil gas at 8%. While domestic production meets most coal demand, China relies heavily on imports for other fossil fuels; nearly three-quarters of oil supply and around 40% of gas supply are imported.14 Non-fossil energy sources – including renewables, biomass, and nuclear – provided the remaining 13% of total energy supply in 2023.

On the consumption side, coal accounted for more than 70% of China’s total energy consumption until 2010.15 Since the start of the 12th Five-Year Plan in 2011, this dependence has steadily declined, reaching 53% of total energy consumption in 2024.16 This shift has been accompanied by a gradual increase in non-fossil energy consumption, which reached around 20% in 2024. This trend has been enabled by massive investment – in 2024 alone, China’s clean energy investment nearly doubled the 2015 levels, reaching over USD 625 billion, with wind, solar and grids infrastructure accounting for over half of those investments.17 The changing energy structure reflects China’s progress toward its NDC targets of increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% by 2030 and over 30% by 2035.18,19

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