What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
China's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Since 2000, China has shifted away from biomass, adopting more electricity, district heating, and solar thermal technologies.4 The 14th Five-Year Plan targets a 55% share of electricity in building energy consumption, efficiency retrofits for 350 million m² of existing buildings by 2025. While this represents a small fraction of China's vast building stock—estimated at over 65 billion m² in 2021 - the plan also aims to build 50 million m² of near-zero-energy buildings by 2025. 5 The plan also seeks to install 50 GW of solar PV in new buildings and employ geothermal energy in over 100 million m² of structures by 2025 – positioning the sector as a critical player in China’s decarbonisation efforts.
Under the Net Zero Commitments pathway, China would need to cut CO2 emissions intensity in buildings by over half by 2030 compared to 2021. This would primarily be achieved by essentially phasing out coal by 2030. During this transition, electricity’s share in the mix would grow rapidly – from 30% in 2021 to 60% by 2030 and over 80% by 2040. The 14th FYP’s target to reach a 55% share of electricity and employ more renewable energy in buildings brings China closer to decarbonising this sector.
China's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
497
|
287 to
287
|
225 to
225
|
146 to
146
|
41 to
41
|
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-42 to
-42%
|
-55 to
-55%
|
-71 to
-71%
|
-92 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
60 to
60
|
72 to
72
|
80 to
80
|
84 to
84
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
18
|
9 to
9
|
8 to
8
|
7 to
7
|
10 to
10
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-