What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Chile
Economy wide
To be in line with a 1.5°C pathway, Chile’s emissions would need to be around 64 MtCO₂e (41% below 2016 levels) by 2030. The gap between Chile’s target and a 1.5°C compatible pathway is 26 MtCO₂e or an extra 24% reduction below 2016 levels.
Chile's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Chile’s unconditional nationally determined contribution (NDC) aims for an emissions level of 95 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF, or a 14% reduction below levels in the reference year of 2016.1
Conditional NDC
Under its NDC that is conditional on international support, Chile aims for an emissions level of 90–95 MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF (14–18% below 2016 levels).
Current policies
Emissions under current policies are projected to be between 88–104 MtCO₂e, showing that Chile may reach its current conditional target, but demonstrating the need for additional effort and ratcheting up to be 1.5°C compatible.
Net zero GHG
Chile has set a net zero GHG emissions target for 2050, however, it foresees 50% of these emissions reductions to come from sequestration from the land use and forestry sector (–65 MtCO₂e/yr from LULUCF in 2050).
1.5°C compatible pathways would require Chile to reach a level of remaining GHG emissions lower than 14 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050 (or 87% below 2016 levels). Chile would need to balance the remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to reach net zero GHGs by mid-century.2
Sectors
Power
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To be aligned with 1.5°C pathways, Chile’s power sector will need to be fully decarbonised in the early 2030s, with renewables representing an 87-99% share of power generation by 2030, compared to roughly 47% in 2019.
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In 2019, Chile set a goal to phase out coal by 2040. However, decarbonising the country’s power sector in line with 1.5°C pathways requires a coal phase-out in the current decade and a gas phase-out between 2031-2035. The current government is studying the feasibility of a more ambitious target and of accelerating the closure of all coal power plants by 2030.3
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Phasing out fossil fuel based power plants will reduce Chile’s dependency on fossil fuel imports, avoid the risk of stranded assets and provide more opportunities for renewable technologies.
Buildings
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In 2020, the building sector in Chile made up around 23% of total national final energy demand, representing more than 7% of total GHG emissions.4,5
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Chile’s energy efficiency law grants an energy efficiency label to buildings that meet a certain energy rating and also mandates all types of building, whether public, residential, commercial or office buildings, to be energy rated.6
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Analysed 1.5C° pathway shows that current measures should be accelerated for the building sector to be decarbonised by 2032–2047.
Industry
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The analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show that the combined share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in industry final energy demand would need to increase to between 83-98% by 2050, from the 2019 level of 55% (predominantly electricity followed by biomass).
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The mining industry is the biggest industrial energy consumer in Chile. The government’s main policy plans for the sector are outlined in the “Energy Strategy”, which sets a 70% reduction target for the mining sector’s energy related emissions by 2050.7
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As part of the government’s long-term strategy and national mining policy, the goal is to reduce the sector’s GHG emissions by at least 50% compared to 2020 by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040.8
Transport
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The Chilean government aims to reduce emissions from road transport by 40% by 2050 and achieve a fully decarbonised public transport fleet by 2040. Current measures include a ban on the sale of fossil fuel powered light duty vehicles by 2035 and promoting electromobility in the public fleet.
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Although the electric vehicle (EV) share of new car sales remains low, recent measures implemented by Chile are positive and should lead to a significant and imminent increase in EV sales.
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Emissions projections in all 1.5°C scenarios show emissions peaking in 2020, followed by a rapid decline to achieve decarbonisation of the sector around 2050, demonstrating that Chile’s current 2050 target remains insufficient.