What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Chile
2025 NDC cycle provides opportunity to set ambitious targets
Chile’s unconditional 2030 target, 8% above 2010 levels excluding LULUCF, is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show emission would need to fall to at least 10-47% below 2010 levels. Its conditional target is also not 1.5°C compatible. As Chile has yet to submit a new NDC updating its 2030 target and establishing a 2035 target, the 2025 NDC cycle represents an opportunity to set ambitious, 1.5°C aligned targets.
Chile's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Favourable environmental and regulatory conditions enables fast renewables rollout
Chile’s environmental conditions are highly suited to rolling out wind and solar generation, and its regulatory environment makes it a top destination for wind and solar investment. In a pathway which reflects the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade and potential for future progress, Chile would need to increase renewable energy capacity to 64 GW by 2030. This is estimated to require USD 4 bn in capacity investments annually between 2026-2030.
Chile’s industry sector needs to decarbonise
Industry in Chile was responsible for roughly 22% of all emissions in 2022. Mining is a significant source of industrial energy demand and emissions. But Chile is also one of the world’s top producers of energy transition materials including copper and lithium. Chile’s mining sector faces a two-fold challenge: meeting the rapidly increasing demand for transition materials while also accelerating sectoral decarbonisation. To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, full industry decarbonisation should take place between 2043-2047.