What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

In 2020, Chile submitted an updated NDC containing two 2030 emission reduction targets to the UNFCCC.1 For comparability with our 1.5°C pathways, we assess these 2030 targets as 8% above 2010 levels (unconditional, excl. LULUCF) and 1% below 2010 levels (conditional, excl. LULUCF). These 2030 targets are not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which show emissions excluding LULUCF would need to fall to at least 10-47% below 2010 levels by 2030. Chile has not yet submitted a new NDC updating its 2030 targets and establishing a 2035 target.

When considering emissions reductions including the LULUCF sector, 1.5°C pathways show emissions would need to fall by at least 115% below 2010 levels by 2030 and 188% by 2035. Chile’s NDC including LULUCF, which we assess as 5-34% above 2010 levels by 2030, is not aligned with 1.5°C pathways.

Chile's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

LULUCF

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology (excluding LULUCF)

    Data References (excluding LULUCF)

Long term pathway

Following the 2021 submission of its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy, Chile enshrined its 2050 net zero target into law via the Climate Change Framework Law (“the Framework”), covering all gases and sectors with the exceptions of international aviation and shipping. The Framework decentralises climate action and sets responsibilities across multiple Ministries, rather than centralising responsibility in the Ministry of Environment. This ‘whole of government’ policy strategy ensures that each ministry has the joint mandate of working to meet Chile’s net zero target.

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Chile needs to reduce its GHG emissions by at least 83% and up to 101% below 2010 levels by 2050. Excluding LULUCF, this is equivalent to between -1 to 15 MtCO₂e/yr in 2050. Any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches to reach net zero. In its Long Term Strategy, Chile estimates a LULUCF contribution of 65 MtCO₂e in 2050 (AR4 GWPs).2However, the LULUCF sector is highly vulnerable to environmental disasters, with devastating wildfires increasing in both severity and frequency in Chile, making it more challenging for Chile to rely on its LULUCF sink to meet its climate targets.3 Chile should instead prioritise making deeper emissions reductions across all other sectors.

Chile's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Chile. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2016
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
109
110
45 to 79
19 to 61
11 to 39
-1 to 13
Relative to reference year in %
-59 to -28%
-83 to -44%
-90 to -64%
-101 to -88%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
81
79
11 to 35
-8 to 24
-17 to 12
-39 to -10
Relative to reference year in %
-86 to -57%
-110 to -70%
-121 to -85%
-148 to -112%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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