What is Chile's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

Chile’s conditional NDC targets 90–95 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 (14-18% below 2016 values). To be in line with a 1.5°C pathway, Chile’s emissions should be close to 64 MtCO2e (41% below 2016 levels) by 2030. The gap between Chile’s target and 1.5°C compatible pathway is 26 MtCO2 e or an extra 24% reduction below the 2016 reference year.

To be on track with 1.5°C pathways assessed here, Chile would need to reduce GHG emissions to 52–71 MtCO2e/yr by 2030, which is 36–53% below 2016 levels when excluding LULUCF sinks. In all scenarios, GHG emissions should have peaked by 2020 at the latest. However, Chile is aiming to peak emissions in 2025.

Steeper GHG emissions reductions are required to be aligned with 1.5°C pathways. Some of the most effective measures for rapid emission reductions would be more aggressive substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy and earlier coal and gas phase-out dates.

Chile's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

The 1.5°C pathways assessed here show that Chile would need to reduce emissions to between 8–20 MtCO₂e by 2050. Chile has set a goal of achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2050, relying on an estimated land carbon sink of –65 MtCO₂e/yr.1 The assessed pathways show that the remaining emissions in 2050 come mainly from agriculture and waste and would need to be compensated through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches, including reforestation/afforestation.2

Chile's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

Chile has set a target of reducing emissions from the energy sector by 25% below 2018 levels by 2030, and 60% by 2050.

The country’s primary energy mix is currently dominated by fossil fuels at around 68% (in 2020). This share will need to approximately halve by 2030, with some 1.5°C pathways showing a fossil fuel share of less than 5% in 2040.

Different approaches could be taken to decarbonise the energy mix: Increasing the share of renewable energy to 46–53% by 2030 and 100% by 2050 would avoid the need for carbon dioxide removals (CDR). Alternatively, a lower penetration of renewable energy would require an increasing use of CDR technologies to compensate emissions from remaining fossil fuels.

Chile's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Chile. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2016
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
111
114
64
52 to 71
29
12 to 36
11
4 to 19
2057
Relative to reference year in %
-42%
-53 to -37%
-74%
-89 to -67%
-90%
-96 to -83%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
87
88
50
32 to 55
14
-7 to 23
-2
-9 to 3
2049
2038 to 2062
Relative to reference year in %
-42%
-64 to -37%
-83%
-108 to -73%
-103%
-111 to -96%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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