What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Senegal
Expanded FF production would undermine Senegal’s almost 1.5°C compatible conditional NDC
Senegal’s conditional NDC target would result in an increase of 29 MtCO2e GHG emissions above 2010 levels by 2030, making this conditional target only 2.3 MtCO2e higher than the projected 1.5°C compatible pathway. Plans to expand fossil fuel production, however, could derail this goal.
Senegal's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Investment in the rapid scale up of renewables is essential
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Senegal would need to rapidly scale up power generation from wind and solar, achieving power sector decarbonisation by the end of 2030s. Subsequently, coal and oil would need to be phased out by 2035.
A national decarbonisation plan for transport is urgently needed
Electrifying Senegal’s private and public transport will be key to transitioning the sector away from oil and reducing its import bill. A 1.5°C compatible pathway requires substantial electrification of the sector, reaching up to 63% of the sector’s final energy demand by 2050.