What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Senegal
2030 ambition broadly in line with 1.5°C
Aligning Senegal’s emissions reduction plans with 1.5°C would mean emissions grow no more than 22% above 2010 levels by 2030. Currently, the more ambitious end of Senegal’s Nationally Determined Contribution is broadly compatible with 1.5°C. Senegal has recently announced its intention to increase its renewable energy target to 40% of the electricity mix by 2030.
Senegal's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Oil and gas expansion risks stranded assets under 1.5°C pathways
Senegal aims to exploit newly discovered oil and gas fields as part of its gas-to-power strategy. Although some 1.5°C pathways show an increase in power generation from fossil gas in the current decade, it is phased out between 2030 and 2040, creating the risk of stranded assets. The Reduced Asset Stranding pathway avoids any build out of fossil gas through a marginally slower phase out of coal and oil. Across all 1.5°C pathways, all fossil fuels are effectively phased out between 2035 and 2040.