What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Industrial emissions, both energy use and process related, accounted for 13% of Senegal’s total GHG emissions in 2019 (excluding LULUCF).1 Industry is dominated by small to medium scale enterprises across food, manufacturing, chemical and mineral industries.2 A third of the industrial sector’s energy mix is already based on electricity, but coal still contributes a 45% share of industrial energy demand, with the remainder coming from biomass.
Senegal's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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If Senegal were to follow the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, electricity would supply around 50% of industrial energy demand, and biomass 42%, while coal would be phased out by 2030. All pathways achieve almost full decarbonisation by early 2040 at the latest by substituting fossil fuels with electricity, hydrogen and biomass. Progressing to 2050, electricity would replace most biomass to supply industry with 88% of its energy needs. Such high electrification rates could be supported by increasing small scale and micro-grid renewable investments, among others.3
Senegal has a conditional target in its NDC of cutting industrial process emissions by 4-8.1% by 2030 compared to Business as Usual (BAU),4 which translates to a 91-100% increase above 2010 levels. This falls far short of what is required by the Minimal CDR Reliance and Sustainable Consumption pathways, which would see process emissions increase by about 40% in 2030 from 2010 levels. Other pathways show an even lower increase of up to 21% above 2010 levels.
Building on existing measures (e.g. the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan)5 would support Senegal’s industry in accelerating its electrification and increasing energy efficiency. Senegal’s oil and gas expansion plans6 are moving forward, risking a delay in decarbonising the sector and increasing the scale of stranded assets.
Senegal's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Senegal's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Senegal
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
1
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
3
|
-1 to
0
|
-2 to
0
|
2025 to
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
300%
|
-100 to
200%
|
-200 to
-100%
|
-300 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
32
|
19 to
52
|
26 to
60
|
21 to
60
|
24 to
88
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
52
|
29 to
95
|
50 to
96
|
90 to
98
|
91 to
100
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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