What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Industrial energy use accounted for 5% of Senegal’s total GHG emissions in 2022 (excluding LULUCF).1 The industry sector mostly consists of small- and medium-sized enterprises across the food, manufacturing, chemical and mineral industries.2 In 2022, coal contributed half of the industrial sector’s energy mix, electricity 24%, oil 19%, with the remainder coming from biomass (7%).
Senegal's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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If Senegal follows the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, industrial energy demand in 2030 would be mostly met by electricity (52%) and biomass (42%). Coal would be almost phased out by 2030. Senegal has a conditional target in its NDC of reducing industrial process emissions 4-8% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual (BAU).3 That translates to a 91-100% increase above 2010 levels - almost double the increase projected by the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which would see 2030 process emissions increase by approximately 53% from 2010 levels, however, as of 2018, IPPU emissions had already increased 182% above 2010 levels, most of which (98%) was emissions from cement production.4
By 2040, the Minimal CDR Reliance and Net-Zero Commitments pathways both achieve close to full decarbonisation, but they do so by leveraging different fuels – 60% electricity and 75% biomass respectively. Substantially increasing biomass use in this way, however, would create competing demands on the land and therefore trade-offs between vital food production and biomass supply.
Senegal’s existing measures, such as the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan provide a platform to accelerate electrification and energy efficiency programs from.5 Oil and gas expansion plans are also progressing, however, risking a delay in decarbonising the sector and increasing the risk and scale of potential stranded assets.6
Senegal's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Senegal's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Senegal
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
3
|
-1 to
0
|
-2 to
0
|
2025 to
2041
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
100%
|
-100 to
50%
|
-150 to
-100%
|
-200 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
14
|
19 to
52
|
26 to
60
|
21 to
60
|
24 to
88
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
18
|
29 to
95
|
50 to
96
|
90 to
98
|
91 to
100
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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