What is Senegal's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
In 2022, Senegal’s power sector was dominated by oil (77%) and coal (8%), while renewables (including biomass) comprised 15%. Across all 1.5°C pathways, oil and coal are rapidly replaced by renewables (including biomass), with coal phased out by around 2035, and all fossil fuels by 2040.
Senegal's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, the power sector can be decarbonised by the end of 2030s. Renewables would need to substantially increase from approximately 15% in 2022 to a range of 95-99% by 2040, indicating the need for a rapid scale up. This is also reflected in the drastic reduction of the power sector’s carbon intensity by 2040.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway implies a rapid increase of fossil gas from 0.2% to 16% between 2022 and 2030, followed by a precipitous decline to 4% by 2040. Unless this increase is limited to only gas use, a sudden increase and decrease that also includes building new fossil gas infrastructure (for extraction, processing and distribution) would likely create expensive stranded assets when the fuel is phased out a short time later.
In the near term, hydrogen does not play a significant role in decarbonising Senegal’s power sector, contributing only 2% by 2035 in both the Minimal CDR Reliance and the Deep Electrification pathways. By 2050, however, this contribution rises to a maximum of 8% and 7% respectively in each pathway.
Senegal's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
Senegal has excellent solar potential, particularly in the northern and north-western parts of the country.1 While it has leveraged this potential to install 262 MW of solar (by 2023), further expansion is likely to be hampered by the limitations of the country’s electricity grid.2 Major investment would be needed to scale up transmission infrastructure to enable Senegal to develop its power sector in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway represents the most rapid rollout, influenced by efforts to limit reliance on prohibitively expensive CDR technologies. It results in the most wind and solar capacity built by 2050 – just under 31 GW – which represents a significant increase from the 0.43 GW of renewable energy installed as of 2021. In this pathway, solar installations initially outstrip those of wind, propelled by annual investments of USD 409 million between 2026-2030, likely due to the low prices of solar.3 Investment in solar would decrease over time, however, to be overtaken by annual wind investments of USD 311 million annually between 2031-2040, and eventually USD 935 million annually between 2041-2050. This pathway would result in 17 GW of solar and 13 GW of wind installed by 2050.
While the Deep Electrification pathway eventually yields less renewable capacity by 2050, reaching 24.5 GW, it also requires less investment – specifically annual investments of USD ~407 million between 2026-2030, increasing to USD 708 million between 2041-2050. Having less overall capacity overall may be worth considering, as it would guard against the costs of potential stranded fossil gas infrastructure assets introduced in the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway.
Alongside capacity investments, Senegal would need to invest in upgrades and extensions to the transmission grid, as well as storage facilities to balance out intermittent renewable energy sources. These investment requirements were not considered in this analysis.
Senegal's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Senegal
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
551
|
64 to
96
|
2 to
16
|
-1 to
1
|
-5 to
0
|
2035 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-88 to
-83%
|
-100 to
-97%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
8
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
15
|
77 to
90
|
94 to
99
|
95 to
100
|
92 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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