What is Spain's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Spain
Economy wide
Spain’s national emissions target aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 23% below 1990 levels, excluding LULUCF. This equates to a 2030 emissions level of 223 MtCO₂e. To be 1.5°C compatible, Spain would need to reduce its emissions to between 45-62% below 1990 levels by 2030. Spain’s target thus falls short of being in line with the Paris Agreement.
Spain's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Net zero GHG
Spain’s long-term ambition is to become a “carbon-neutral” country by 2050, in line with the position adopted by the European Commission.
Current policies
According to its national energy and climate plan (NECP), this objective represents at least a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Our analysis shows that Spain’s long-term target is broadly aligned with 1.5°C pathways.
Sectors
Power
- According to its NECP, Spain aims to increase renewable generation to 74% of the power mix by 2030 and achieve 100% by 2050. This target closely aligns with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would see Spain’s share of renewable energy fall within the range of 64% and 89% by 2030.
Buildings
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Both the emissions intensity and the total emissions of the buildings sector have been on the increase since 2014.
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Half the 1.5°C pathways reflect lower energy demand in 2050 compared to 2019 levels, which can be achieved through widespread renovation of existing building stock and improved efficiency standards in new buildings.
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1.5°C domestic pathways show the buildings sector decarbonising between 2035-2043.
Industry
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1.5°C compatible pathways in Spain would see the industry sector decarbonised between 2041 and 2048.
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1.5°C pathways show growth in industrial electrification, with electricity providing 62-71% of industrial demand by 2050.
Transport
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All pathways analysed here show rapid electrification of transport, with the potential to reach a third of the transport sector’s total energy consumption in 2030.
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To be 1.5°C compatible, transport emissions would need to decrease by 79% below 1990 levels by 2040, with the sector reaching zero emissions between 2048 and 2053.
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Spain’s target to reduce transport emissions to 60 MtCO₂e by 2030 falls short of 1.5°C compatibility, which would see emissions fall to 46-47 MtCO₂e.