What is Spain's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
Under its national emissions reduction target, Spain aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions excluding LULUCF by 23% in 2030 below 1990 levels. This needs to be strengthened to between 45-62% below 1990 levels to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Given that fossil fuels continue to dominate Spain’s energy supply, ratcheting up the transition to renewables will be critical to cutting emissions in line with 1.5℃.
To contribute its fair share to global climate action, Spain would need to go further than its domestic emissions reduction and provide substantial support to developing countries for emissions reductions.
Spain's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
-
Long term pathway
As per its national energy and climate plan (NECP), Spain’s long-term objective is to become a “carbon neutral” country by 2050. For this purpose, Spain aims to mitigate at least 90% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.1 Spain’s long-term target aligns with 1.5℃ pathways, aiming for GHG emissions reductions (excl. LULUCF) of 86-104% below 1990 levels in 2050.
To reach net zero CO₂, Spain would need to balance its remaining emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches. However, CDR technologies are expensive and unproven at scale.
Pathways with higher shares of renewable energy by mid-century show less or no reliance on CDR technologies.
Spain's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Energy system transformation
Energy-related emissions make up 75% of Spain’s total GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing energy emissions holds the largest potential for aligning Spain with 1.5°C. Fossil fuel use will need to contract from its current share of nearly three-quarters of primary energy supply to around half in 2030 and less than a quarter in 2050.
All of the assessed pathways show a decline in energy demand by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, driven by energy efficiency improvements. Likewise, all pathways see increases in electrification. By 2030, a 1.5°C compatible energy system would see electrification rates of 27-49%, with this share rising to 48-80% by 2050.
Spain’s 2020 NECP aims to increase the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption to 42% in 2030 which, if met, would be in line with 1.5°C.
Spain's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Spain. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
1990
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
290
|
315
|
132
119 to
160
|
47
37 to
82
|
30
-13 to
40
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-54%
-59 to
-45%
|
-84%
-87 to
-72%
|
-90%
-104 to
-86%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
230
|
252
|
104
84 to
128
|
25
8 to
53
|
1
-33 to
17
|
2052
2042 to
2061
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-55%
-63 to
-44%
|
-89%
-97 to
-77%
|
-100%
-114 to
-92%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-