What is Spain's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector emissions in Spain declined by about 18% between 1990 and 2019. The sector’s CO₂ emissions intensity fell by 54%, from 436 gCO₂/kWh to 200 gCO₂/kWh in the same period, predominantly due to coal’s share in the energy mix falling from 40% to 5%. The reduction in coal capacity was replaced by increases in gas (1% in 1990 to 35% in 2019) and renewables (from 17% in 1990 to 37% in 2019).
1.5°C compatible pathways include greater drops in emission intensity, with emission intensity in 2030 between 73-91% below 1990 levels, or 40-116 gCO₂/kWh. This can be achieved by increasing the share of renewables in the power mix, from 37% in 2019 to 81-89% by 2030, and a concurrent fall in the share of fossil fuels from 41% to 9-11% by 2030.
Spain’s national energy and climate plan (NECP) targets 74% renewable energy in the power mix by 2030, with plans to add 59 GW of capacity in its power system, half from solar PV and the rest from other renewables, which is broadly aligned with 1.5°C.1
Spain's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
-
Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
-
Spain's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Spain to be on the order of USD 4 to 38 billion by 2030 and 8 to 52 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Spain's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
-
Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
-
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Spain
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
199
|
40 to
40
|
0 to
1
|
-11 to
0
|
2037 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-80 to
-80%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
31
|
8 to
10
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
37
|
81 to
89
|
95 to
96
|
97 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
41
|
9 to
11
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-