What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Algeria
Transitioning away from fossil fuels key to increasing ambition in line with 1.5°C
A 1.5°C compatible Algeria would emit, at most, 170 MtCO2e in 2030 excluding LULUCF. However, Algeria’s conditional NDC target would lead to 2030 emissions of 205-377 MtCO2e. Given that the energy sector accounted for 80% of economy-wide emissions in 2022, decarbonising energy will be fundamental to aligning with 1.5°C.
Algeria's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Renewables will be central to a 1.5°C aligned power sector
Algeria’s electricity supply is almost entirely supplied by fossil gas. 1.5°C pathways show the role of gas drops to 41-66% of the electricity mix by 2030, replaced instead by renewables (30-55%). Gas would effectively be phased out by 2040 across all assessed 1.5°C pathways. Aligning Algeria’s power sector with 1.5°C would involve annual investments of USD 1.4-4.8 bn/yr between 2026-2030 in capacity additions, with investments increasing USD 2.9-7.5 bn/yr between 2030-2040.
A 1.5°C compatible transport sector can be achieved through rapid electrification or reducing final energy demand
The Deep Electrification pathway shows the highest increase in transport energy demand as well as the strongest electrification rate (71% by 2040). This would likely be achieved through wider uptake of electric vehicles. Alternatively, pathways with slightly lower electrification rates see stronger reductions in final energy demand, which can be achieved by expanding public transport.