What is Algeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Algeria’s direct CO₂ emissions from the transport sector were 45 MtCO₂ in 2022 with oil accounting for 94% of the transport energy mix. ²2^,33 To be aligned with 1.5°C, this would need to fall to 41-43 MtCO₂ by 2030 and between 3-13 MtCO₂ by 2050. Emissions reductions in the transport sector will be driven by substituting oil use with low-carbon alternatives, primarily electricity. A 1.5°C aligned transport sector would see decarbonisation occur between 2048-2062.

In the Deep Electrification pathway, electricity provides 89% of the total energy mix in 2050. This pathway, which best leverages the rapid cost reduction of renewables, would see the highest electrification of the sector, spurred by a policy framework fostering the rollout of charging infrastructure and deployment of electric vehicles. Correspondingly, the share of oil would fall to 84% in 2030 and 10% in 2050.

The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway indicates a more gradual oil phase out, from 90% in 2030, to 64% in 2040, and eventually to 28% in 2050.

Energy demand in 2050 would be 485 PJ/yr under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, significantly less than the 743 PJ/yr seen under the Deep Electrification pathway. Pathways with lower energy demand can be realised by investing in public transport. A modal shift to rail and buses, which consume less energy per passenger than private vehicles, can lead to reductions in final energy demand and thereby decrease the need to electrify the sector as quickly as would be the case for a pathway which relies more on EVs.