What is Angola's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Angola
Economy wide
A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Angola would require emissions to fall 22% compared to 2015 levels by 2025 (excluding LULUCF) to reach 80 MtCO₂e by 2025. International support would be needed to achieve these emissions reductions.
Angola's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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2030 NDC
Angola’s NDC aims to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14% compared to Business as Usual (BAU), with an additional 10% reduction by 2025 conditional on international support.
Angola’s has a large LULUCF sector, the emissions from which are difficult to estimate. Excluding LULUCF, the country’s NDC would see emissions levels of around 83 MtCO₂e by 2025, or a reduction of 19% compared to 2015.
Long-term strategy
To date, Angola has not articulated a long-term strategy or net zero target.
2050 ambition
Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Angola would need to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 22-39 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, or a 79-62% reduction in emissions compared to 2015, excluding LULUCF.
Remaining emissions
Given the high level of LULUCF emissions in Angola, reducing its land sector emissions will be key to reducing overall emissions.
Sectors
Power
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A 1.5°C compatible pathway for the power sector would require 99% renewables in the electricity mix by 2030-2031, up from 70% in 2019.
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Fossil gas and oil, which represented 11% and 30% of the power mix respectively in 2019, need to be phased out between 2030 and 2031.
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Angola’s extensive hydropower network is vulnerable to climate impacts on water levels, requiring the use of variable renewables to mitigate these risks.
Transport
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO₂ emissions from the transport sector should be roughly halved by 2030 and reach full decarbonisation by around 2050.
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This can be achieved through a rapid uptake of the use of electricity in the sector, combined with other low-emissions fuels. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of electricity could grow from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% by 2030, and 17-36% by 2050.